A new independent review of Ghana’s 2026 Budget by Emerging Markets Advisory (EM Advisory) has observed the government’s fiscal discipline but warns that the country is walking a “tightrope” between genuine progress and structural vulnerabilities that could threaten long-term stability.
Titled “Walking the Tightrope: Ghana’s 2026 Budget Between Good Vibes and Hard Realities,” the report notes that while government has delivered notable macroeconomic gains in its first year, these achievements rest on fragile foundations.
It notes that Ghana’s economy faces significant pressures, including large debt maturities, heavy domestic refinancing needs, and ambitious government programs.
The consultancy commended the government for restoring macroeconomic stability, citing a projected primary surplus of 1.6% of GDP, a fiscal deficit near 1.5%, moderating inflation, and a stabilised cedi. However, EM Advisory stressed that these gains could be undermined without disciplined planning, particularly as Ghana exits the IMF’s US$3 billion Extended Credit Facility next year.
Dr. Abudu Abdul-Ganiyu, Managing Partner at EM Advisory, described the upcoming obligations as “one of the most consequential fiscal tests Ghana has faced in a decade.” External debt repayments are steep—GH¢20 billion in 2026, GH¢50.3 billion in 2027, and GH¢45.8 billion in 2028—alongside about GH¢137 billion in annual Treasury bill rollovers and GH¢71 billion expected for the 2026 budget.
Meanwhile, government plans high-impact initiatives such as the GH¢30 billion Big Push infrastructure program, oil palm industrialisation, and the 24-hour economy. EM Advisory warned that inadequate project preparation, financial appraisal, and risk assessment could derail these programs, emphasizing the need for transparency, robust PPP frameworks, and realistic execution timelines.
The firm also urged caution before returning to the Eurobond market, noting that re-entry must be backed by credible debt sustainability and disciplined expenditure to avoid high costs or reputational risks.
Revenue projections targeting 16.8% of GDP remain a concern, as specifics on how the government will achieve this increase are unclear despite VAT reforms and other tax measures.
“Until structural issues are addressed, the optimism built into the 2026 projections remains fragile,” the advisory concluded.