Ghana’s inflation outlook is showing signs of stability, and if current conditions hold, the country could keep inflation within its target band through the rest of 2025 and the whole of 2026, according to a leading economist.
However, this fairly firmly anchored inflation is not immune to shocks, as there are inherent risks, both domestic and international, which can throw the stable price outlook off balance.
This is the reading of Courage Boti, Manager of Macroeconomic Research at GCB Bank. Speaking in an interview monitored by The High Street Journal, Boti explained that the combination of easing price pressures, firmer policy direction, and improved budget discipline is helping anchor inflation more firmly than before.
According to him, both cost side and demand side factors, the two major forces that push prices up, are now moving in a direction that supports disinflation. He points to the Bank of Ghana’s (BoG) proactiveness in managing liquidity in the market through sterilization and its conscious effort to ease interest rates gradually while keeping a close eye on inflation risks.
On the ground, he says, signs of food surpluses in markets and relatively stable demand conditions are helping to cool price pressures, even as the country prepares for new utility tariff adjustments and changes in the value added tax (VAT) system.
“I think everything is set, at least on the macro side, for inflation to remain within the target band for at least 2026. If you see the fiscal position, wherever that discipline is coming from, whether it’s from cost control exactly, or from whatever, yes, we’ve seen that the fiscal discipline trickling into that, and to the extent that the budget position going into 2026 also typifies similar discipline going forward,” he explained.
He added, “To the extent we can keep it, I think we have a call for inflation to remain within the target band.”
However, he was quick to warn that the calm is not guaranteed. Ghana remains exposed to external shocks such as fuel price jumps on the world market and sudden exchange rate swings. Any sharp movement in these areas could quickly filter into the prices of goods and services locally.
The economist pointed out that typical shocks would come from petroleum prices on the global market and potential exchange rate shocks, and how these pass through to general prices on the market.
He also noted that global conditions are currently favorable, with many economies easing their policies cautiously. This has reduced the immediate threat of global inflationary spillovers. Oil prices, too, are not expected to rise sharply due to supply constraints and cautious production levels.
Boti believes that the risk to inflation is fairly balanced, and it should support the disinflation process around stability for 2026. This prediction carries significant implications for consumers and businesses.
BoG Governor Johnson Asiama recently stated that consumer inflation is likely to settle between four and six percent by year end before stabilizing around the target band of eight percent with a margin of error of two percentage points either side in 2026. This shows Ghana is entering what could become a multi year period of price stability.
“As inflation declines faster than projected, real interest rates have risen sharply. Staff analysis shows scope for gradual easing, but the balance must preserve credibility and avoid undermining the disinflation gains,” Asiama said during the 127th Monetary Policy Committee meeting on November 24, 2025.
Headline inflation fell to eight percent in October 2025, down from 13.7 percent in June, while core inflation measures ranged between five and seven percent. The BoG has cut the policy rate by 650 basis points in 2025, reducing it from 29 percent at the start of the year to 21.5 percent by September.
The governor said Ghana’s economy is moving from recovery to expansion following its worst crisis in a generation. Economic growth reached 6.3 percent in the first half of 2025, while international reserves stood at $11.41 billion, the highest in years. The cedi currency has also remained broadly stable throughout the year.
The International Monetary Fund projects Ghana may achieve single digit inflation by the end of 2026, forecasting a rate of 9.4 percent. Fitch Solutions has also projected inflation to ease from 23 percent in 2024 to 15 percent in 2025 and 10 percent in 2026.
Boti has been a consistent voice on Ghana’s macroeconomic developments. In earlier commentary about Fitch’s credit rating upgrade for Ghana in June 2025, he emphasized the importance of maintaining fiscal discipline and building buffers before returning to international capital markets.
“Looking at the trajectory of events, it was clear they were going to upgrade Ghana. There is a general improvement in the macro fundamentals, the cedi’s behavior has been relatively stable and there has been a meaningful shift in policy direction,” Boti stated at the time.
He had warned against any premature return to international capital markets despite the ratings upgrade, noting that borrowing costs would remain prohibitively high at current ratings levels. “We are not in default, so technically we can go to market. But at the current ratings, borrowing costs would be prohibitive, possibly close to 10 percent for a five or ten year bond,” he cautioned.
The economist’s current assessment reflects growing confidence that Ghana’s disinflation gains can be sustained through coordinated fiscal and monetary policy, provided external shocks remain manageable and domestic discipline continues.
For consumers, sustained low inflation means greater purchasing power and more predictable household budgets. For businesses, it translates into improved planning capacity, more stable input costs, and a better environment for investment decisions.
Ghana’s inflation path appears to be on the right track, but the country must remain vigilant to ensure that cooling prices are not disrupted by external or domestic shocks that could affect consumer pockets and business projections.