The Institute for Statistical, Social and Economic Research (ISSER) has warned that Ghana’s growth prospects for 2025 and beyond could be undermined by worrying structural signals in the 2026 Budget, despite headline gains in fiscal consolidation and tax reforms.
During its post-budget reflections, the Institute maintained that the projected GDP growth rate of 4.8% for 2025 is “a bit low”, considering the stronger performance recorded in the first two quarters.
ISSER cautions that the figure raises questions about underlying economic drivers and the future strength of the recovery.
The Institute added that the sharp deceleration in the construction subsector, combined with declining capital expenditure, poses a significant threat to business efficiency and long-term competitiveness.
It argued that Ghana’s capex levels — at 1.7% of GDP compared to over 10% in the sub-region — could deepen productivity challenges if not urgently addressed.
Beyond growth concerns, ISSER noted that fiscal consolidation achieved through cuts in interest payments and capital spending may prove problematic. While the revised fiscal council is a positive step, the Institute insists that prioritisation of spending must become central to maintaining macro stability.
ISSER further lamented that government’s promised “big push” for development does not find real expression in the budget, adding that exchange rate stability, although improving, must be sustained to support investor confidence.
On agriculture, ISSER acknowledged recent improvements in production but stressed that gains will remain fragile if structural bottlenecks in the value chain are not fixed.
The Institute also welcomed the reduction in effective tax rates through VAT reforms, describing it as a “very positive” move that could boost compliance and ease the burden on businesses.
However, ISSER expressed concern over the airport development levy, questioning whether a proper cost–benefit analysis had been conducted, especially given the need for consistency with Ghana’s tourism development plan.
It further called for a national dialogue on education subsidies, particularly as limited fiscal space continues to affect both government and public universities.
ISSER concluded that Ghana must invest significantly more in research and development, especially in renewable energy, if it hopes to meet its future energy mix targets and strengthen long-term economic resilience.