Ghana stands poised to capture $16 billion from West Africa’s projected $80 billion oil and gas market by 2033, according to a recent Deloitte report, but the optimistic forecast clashes sharply with the country’s current reality of declining production and seven years without a single new petroleum agreement.
The Public Interest and Accountability Committee confronted this paradox during its mid year report launch in Accra, where officials grappled with reconciling Deloitte’s bullish projections against Ghana’s grim production trends. The professional services firm estimates the West African oil and gas market will grow at a compound annual rate of 6.5 percent through 2033, with Ghana accounting for roughly 20 percent of that total value.
PIAC Chairman Noble Wadzah acknowledged the disconnect but insisted Ghana’s resource potential justifies the projection. The problem isn’t geological endowment but rather the country’s failure to convert that potential into actual production through sustained exploration and development investment.
“Resource potential does exist. We do have the potential,” Wadzah told journalists during a press briefing. “What we haven’t done well is the actual exploration and then getting into the production field. We have to exploit our hydrocarbons.”
But Ghana’s track record suggests a widening gap between potential and performance. Crude oil production has tumbled for five consecutive years, dropping from a peak of 71.44 million barrels in 2019 to 48.25 million barrels in 2024. The first half of 2025 saw output collapse by nearly 26 percent compared to the same period last year, falling from 24.86 million barrels to just 18.42 million barrels.
The decline stems from a basic problem that’s becoming increasingly difficult to ignore. Ghana is essentially depleting the same oil reserves discovered around 2010 without finding new fields to replace them. As those reserves get drawn down year after year, recoverable quantities inevitably shrink toward zero.
“Think of it this way: you discovered a certain quantity of oil several years ago from 2010 thereabout,” explained a PIAC technical official during the briefing. “Oil we know is a finite resource, so as you deplete the same stock of oil without replenishing it, the kind of quantities that you can extract at any given time will continue to deplete.”
What makes the situation more troubling is that Ghana hasn’t signed a new petroleum agreement since 2018, marking over seven years without fresh exploration commitments. During that period, global energy dynamics shifted dramatically, with major oil companies initially pivoting toward renewables before the Russian-Ukrainian war forced a reassessment of fossil fuel reliability.
Wadzah noted that energy transition discussions had dampened investment appetite for African oil projects. Companies like Chevron and Shell were talking seriously about moving away from hydrocarbons toward cleaner energy sources, which affected Ghana’s ability to attract capital during a critical period.
“There was a period when the energy transition gained traction, and all the big guys in the industry, the Chevrons, the Shell, and all that, they were all talking energy transition,” Wadzah said. “They were moving away from fossil fuels and looking at more of the renewables, so that affected investments into the hydrocarbons.”
But Europe’s energy crisis following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine changed the calculus almost overnight. Countries that had been championing rapid transition away from fossil fuels suddenly found themselves scrambling for reliable hydrocarbon supplies when Russian pipelines shut down.
“Before the Russian-Ukrainian war, almost all Europe was talking energy transition,” Wadzah explained. “But when the war started and the Russian supply of oil to these major countries was truncated, then these same countries went back on their word.”
That shift should theoretically create opportunities for countries like Ghana to attract investment, but several factors are working against that outcome. Deloitte’s report identifies five major challenges facing the West African oil sector, including limited funding access for independent producers, persistent cost premiums, ongoing security threats, regulatory hurdles, and inadequate infrastructure.
For Ghana specifically, which accounts for 20 percent of the West African market value, the report notes that recent policy shifts are helping to reposition the country as an investment destination following stalled production growth. But those policy adjustments haven’t yet translated into concrete exploration agreements or drilling activity that could reverse the production decline.
PIAC officials acknowledged they’ve repeatedly raised these concerns with both previous and current administrations, even organizing stakeholder conferences that produced comprehensive recommendations. Yet as an advocacy body, the committee lacks authority to compel government action beyond drawing public attention to the problems.
The funding challenge extends beyond attracting foreign investors. Access to capital remains what Deloitte describes as the most defining pressure point for the region’s independent oil producers, with African independents facing tightening margins and investor hesitancy due to environmental, social and governance pressures, divestment from fossil fuels, poor corporate governance practices, and perceived regulatory and political risks.
The capital drought has led to concentration of additional investments among a few big players with access to global lending or private equity relationships, while many others resort to sale and leaseback agreements, alternative funding arrangements, or joint ventures with non-traditional partners.
Ghana’s situation is further complicated by infrastructure deficiencies. Despite having significant reserves, many parts of Africa lack the basic infrastructure required to monetize those resources effectively, with midstream and downstream infrastructure like pipelines, refineries, roads, and storage facilities remaining underdeveloped or entirely absent.
During the PIAC briefing, questions arose about whether Ghana should be simultaneously investing in renewable energy to hedge against the eventual exhaustion of oil resources. Officials agreed that a balanced energy mix is essential, but emphasized that the window for exploiting hydrocarbon resources hasn’t closed.
The challenge is timing. Ghana needs to move aggressively to explore and develop its petroleum resources while there’s still appetite for such investments, even as it builds renewable capacity for the longer term. The country can’t afford to assume the Deloitte projection will materialize automatically.
What’s needed, according to PIAC, is a fundamental shift in how government approaches petroleum sector development. That means improving fiscal terms to attract serious players, upgrading the quality of geological data presented to potential investors, and reconsidering the size of concessions offered to exploration companies.
Deloitte emphasizes that Africa’s energy future hinges on availability of capital for both legacy and new energy projects, requiring bankable projects, investor ready business models, and improved perceptions of regulatory and operational stability in equal measure.
The establishment of the Africa Energy Bank, headquartered in Nigeria with $5 billion in initial funding, offers some hope for addressing financing constraints. But Ghana will still need to create conditions that make its petroleum sector attractive compared to other African countries competing for the same investment dollars.
PIAC’s repeated calls for a broad based, long term national development plan approved by Parliament reflect recognition that petroleum sector development can’t be treated as a series of disconnected decisions. The sector needs policy continuity across different administrations, something that’s proven difficult to achieve in Ghana’s political environment.
The Deloitte projection isn’t inherently unrealistic. West Africa does have substantial untapped reserves, and global energy demand continues growing despite transition pressures. Nigeria alone produces approximately 1.5 million barrels per day, while Angola produces 1.1 million barrels daily, demonstrating the region’s production capacity.
But potential only matters if it’s realized. For Ghana to capture its projected $16 billion share of the regional market, the country needs to reverse years of declining output, sign new exploration agreements, attract billions in development capital, and execute projects efficiently. None of that happens without deliberate, sustained policy intervention.
As of June 2025, Ghana maintained just 13 active petroleum agreements with only three fields in production. The Deepwater Tano Cape Three Points block has development plan approval but hasn’t begun actual field work. Other contract areas remain at various exploration stages with no guarantee of commercial viability.
The question hanging over Ghana’s petroleum sector isn’t whether the resources exist or whether market conditions will support development. It’s whether government can act decisively enough to convert geological potential into production growth before the investment window closes. With each passing year without new agreements, that window narrows further, making Deloitte’s optimistic projection feel increasingly distant from Ghana’s current trajectory.