Ghana’s export landscape is becoming increasingly concentrated in the hands of a few trading partners, raising concerns about the country’s vulnerability to external economic shocks as traditional industrial markets continue to shrink their share of the nation’s total exports.
Recent trade data reveals a troubling pattern: Ghana’s exports are heavily concentrated among just a handful of countries, with Switzerland, China, and the United States dominating the picture. This concentration has intensified over recent years, even as the country’s overall export performance remains dependent on just three commodities that account for more than 70 percent of total export revenue.
In 2023, approximately 78.4 percent of Ghana’s total foreign trade involved just 10 major partners, including China, Switzerland, the United States, India, the Netherlands, Italy, United Kingdom, Brazil, Belgium, and Turkey. That figure represents a significant increase from 68.6 percent in 2017, showing how Ghana’s trade relationships have become more concentrated rather than more diversified over time.
The numbers tell a stark story about dependence. Switzerland alone captured 25 percent of Ghana’s exports in 2023, primarily gold and cocoa, while China took 13.3 percent and the United States 12.7 percent. India accounted for 9.6 percent, and Italy 5.5 percent. Meanwhile, traditional European partners like France, Germany, and the United Kingdom have seen their shares steadily decline, often falling below 2 percent in recent quarters.
The Netherlands, which once commanded over 12 percent of Ghana’s total exports in single quarters back in 2017, has seen its share fluctuate dramatically in recent years. While the country occasionally experiences sharp spikes in taking Ghanaian goods, particularly cocoa and shea products, its overall trajectory shows the kind of volatility that makes export planning difficult and revenue forecasting uncertain.
What’s particularly concerning is how heavily Ghana leans on just three export products. Gold, crude oil, and cocoa beans contributed approximately 71.7 percent of the country’s annual total export revenue in 2023, down slightly from 75.6 percent in 2017 but still representing an alarming lack of diversification. When your entire export economy rises or falls based on global commodity prices for three products, you’re exposing yourself to significant risk.
The structural challenge goes deeper than just commodity dependence. Ghana’s major exports are primarily goods extracted from its lands or grown there, which means the country often sells raw materials with minimal processing. That approach generates less revenue per unit than manufactured goods would, and it keeps Ghana trapped in the lower value segments of global supply chains.
Between 2015 and 2018, Ghana’s exports to major industrial economies were generally growing. The United States consistently captured significant shares, sometimes accounting for more than 7 percent of total exports at a time when the Netherlands was also performing strongly. Countries like France, Germany, Italy, Japan, and the UK maintained smaller but respectable shares during this period.
After 2018, the picture changed considerably. France, Germany, Japan, and the UK began posting steadily declining shares. Even the dominant players like the Netherlands and the United States started showing dramatic quarterly swings, highlighting just how sensitive Ghana’s export performance is to shifts in the global economy. Seasonal patterns became more pronounced, with the second quarter often showing smaller shares while the fourth quarter typically posted rebounds, likely reflecting end of year demand cycles in industrial countries.
In the most recent period covering 2023 through early 2025, Ghana’s exports have become even more concentrated and volatile. France, Germany, Italy, Japan, and the UK now frequently take less than 2 percent each of total exports in many quarters. The weight of maintaining Ghana’s export revenues has fallen increasingly on the Netherlands and the United States, with occasional contributions from Switzerland and Asian markets.
The risk inherent in this concentration is obvious. When you’re relying so heavily on a few countries for export revenue, any economic slowdown, trade disruption, policy change, or shift in demand from those key markets can devastate your economy. If Switzerland’s gold demand softens, or if China reduces its crude oil imports, or if the United States cuts back on cocoa purchases, Ghana feels the impact immediately and severely.
The country’s import structure offers an interesting contrast. Ghana doesn’t show a strong dependence on any specific set of imported goods, suggesting a diverse consumption pattern. However, that diversity in imports actually signals something problematic: the low level of diversification in the local economy forces Ghana to purchase most products from outside to satisfy domestic demand.
Looking at China’s role specifically, the Asian giant dominated Ghana’s imports with a 50.4 percent share in 2023, up dramatically from 36.4 percent in 2017. The Netherlands followed with 7.3 percent, and India with 5.4 percent. So while Ghana struggles to diversify where it sells, it’s becoming increasingly dependent on China for what it buys, creating another layer of vulnerability.
From 2017 to 2023, the share of nonmonetary gold and cocoa beans among Ghana’s major export positions declined by 19.9 percent and 41.6 percent respectively, while crude oil’s share surged by 49.6 percent. That shift toward oil dependence came just as global energy markets were experiencing unprecedented volatility, adding another dimension of risk to Ghana’s export portfolio.
The overall picture is one of declining diversification and rising exposure to risk. While early 2025 saw some rebounds in exports to the Netherlands, the United States, and France, the broader trend points clearly toward greater concentration and therefore greater vulnerability. For an economy trying to achieve sustainable growth and financial stability, this represents a fundamental strategic challenge that requires urgent attention.
Ghana needs a sharper focus on market strategy, export diversification, and economic resilience. The country should be actively pursuing new trading partnerships, developing value-added industries that process raw materials locally before export, and reducing dependence on commodity price fluctuations. Without these changes, Ghana remains dangerously exposed to global economic shocks that could undermine years of development progress.
The trade concentration data serves as a wake-up call. Building a more resilient economy means spreading risk across more markets, adding value to exports through local processing, and developing new industries that can compete in global markets. It’s a long-term project that requires sustained policy focus, strategic investment, and a willingness to move beyond the comfort zone of traditional commodity exports.