Renowned pollster and Global infoAnalytics Boss Mussa Dankwah, On Today August 30 has shared fresh insights on his official Facebook page about the upcoming Akwatia by-election.
He explained that the contest is shaping up to be one of the toughest for the New Patriotic Party (NPP) due to a major voter shift.
According to Dankwah, no new voters have been registered in Akwatia. This means the results will depend heavily on voters who participated in the 2024 elections.
He revealed that recent polls place the National Democratic Congress (NDC) candidate, Bernard Baidoo, in the lead with 53%, while the NPP candidate, Solomon Asumadu, follows with 47%.
The surprising twist is that 24% of voters who supported Ernest Kumi of the NPP in 2024 have now switched their allegiance to Baidoo.
This shift, Dankwah explained, is a heavy blow to the NPP, which only won the seat by about 2,000 votes (6%) in the last elections.
He added that the NDC only needed a 3% swing to take over the seat, but the 24% swing seen in the polls is far greater than expected.
Dankwah compared this to the 2024 elections in Greater Accra, where a large voter swing helped John Mahama secure 64% against Dr. Bawumia’s 34%.
The polling data also revealed why the shift is happening. Dankwah noted that many educated voters who previously trusted Kumi’s abilities now believe Bernard Baidoo is a better candidate to replace him.
For instance, among voters with Senior High School education, 34% have moved to Baidoo, while 30% of tertiary graduates also favor him.
On the other hand, those with Junior High School qualifications and voters without formal education still show stronger support for Asumadu.
However, the switch among SHS and university graduates is too significant to ignore, and it could decide the outcome.
Dankwah announced that more detailed data will be released Monday night. This new information will identify specific electoral areas where most of Kumi’s former supporters who are switching or undecided can be found.
He hinted that the data would be critical for understanding voting behavior, but difficult for any party to fully exploit.
The analysis makes one thing clear: educated voters could be the ultimate game-changers in Akwatia.
Source Link below
https://www.facebook.com/100001460752425/posts/24675058025459547/?mibextid=rS40aB7S9Ucbxw6v