Fitch Solutions revises its end-2025 forecast for the cedi to end at GH¢13
Fitch Solutions has revised its end-2025 forecast for the cedi to end at GH¢13 to a $1, down from its earlier projection of GH¢15.50.
Fitch attributes this to the constant appreciation of the cedi against the dollar.
According to the research firm, the cedi has appreciated by 30% between late April and May 2025, backed by stronger global gold prices.
It further explained that the exchange will ease inflationary pressures and provide room for the Bank of Ghana (BoG) to pivot towards monetary easing in the second half of the year.
Given Ghana’s status as a net importer of key consumer goods including fuel, cereals, pharmaceuticals, and plastics, a stronger cedi will have a notable disinflationary effect, particularly on imported goods.
On the inflation, Fitch noted that headline inflation has begun to ease after a sticky start to the year as April 2025 inflation stood at 21.5% year-on-year, down from 23.5% in January.
Inflation is projected to average 18.0% for 2025 and end the year at 13.1%, trending closer to the pre-pandemic average of 12.4% recorded between 2015 and 2019.
The decline in inflation, together with the cedi’s appreciation and expected policy easing is expected to boost household purchasing power and support a faster pace of consumer spending growth over the remainder of the year.
SP/AE
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