Professor Godfred Alufar Bokpin, an economist and finance lecturer at the University of Ghana Business School, has said Ghana’s economic recovery will only be meaningful if the country maintains fiscal discipline after the International Monetary Fund (IMF) programme ends in 2026.
Speaking on TV3’s Key Points programme on Saturday [May 24, 2025], Prof. Bokpin said that meeting IMF targets in the short term is not enough.
According to him, the real test of Ghana’s progress will come in the years after the programme ends, when external oversight is no longer in place.
“The real test is not whether we meet the IMF targets this year or next,” he said. “The real test is whether, in 2027 and 2028, when the IMF is no longer watching, we will uphold the same standards. That is what determines whether the progress is real or temporary.”
Ghana is currently implementing a US$3 billion Extended Credit Facility with the IMF. The three-year programme began in 2023 and is aimed at stabilising the economy following a period of high inflation, rising debt levels, and sharp depreciation of the cedi. It is expected to conclude in the first quarter of 2026.
Prof Bokpin noted that past experience suggests Ghana often loses discipline shortly after exiting IMF support, particularly in election years. He said the temptation to overspend ahead of the 2028 general elections could once again undo hard-won progress unless safeguards are put in place.
“When the IMF is here, we follow the rules. But when they leave, we tend to abandon them—especially in election years,” he said. “If we don’t build in protection against political interference, we’ll end up where we started.”
Prof Bokpin acknowledged that the 2025 budget contains signs of recovery, including a projected turnaround from a primary deficit of 3 per cent in 2024 to a surplus of 1.5 per cent. But he warned that these gains are not guaranteed to last.
“These numbers are promising, but they don’t guarantee anything,” he said. “The real issue is whether we can keep it up when the Fund is no longer around. That’s where we usually fall short.”
On the performance of the cedi, Dr. Bokpin observed that recent improvements may be temporary, driven largely by short-term interventions. “A $20 million forex demand can swing the market,” he said. “We can’t mistake temporary stability for long-term recovery.”
He maintained that without long-lasting reforms that withstand political pressure, the country risks falling back into economic distress once the IMF’s supervision ends.