Dr Edwin Alfred Provencal is former MD of BOST
Former Managing Director of the Bulk Oil Storage and Transportation Company (BOST), Dr Edwin Provencal, has raised concerns about a slowdown in Ghana’s gold reserve accumulation in early 2025.
He is therefore calling for increased transparency and strategic intervention to address the issue.
In an analysis shared on his Facebook page on May 7, 2025, Dr Provencal presented a forecasting model built using historical reserve data from May 2023 to December 2024.
The model projected steady monthly growth in gold holdings throughout 2025, using the formula: ln (Gold) = 2.366 + 0.05686 × Month_Index
The model demonstrated a strong correlation (R² ≈ 0.907) and anticipated that Ghana’s gold reserves would exceed 33 tonnes by April 2025.
However, Dr Provencal noted that actual figures for the period from January to April 2025 indicate a slower pace.
Ghana’s gold reserves hovered around 31.4 tonnes at the end of April, falling short of the forecast.
The former BOST MD said this divergence signals a disruption in the previously steady accumulation trend observed over the prior 20 months.
“This discrepancy indicates slower reserve accumulation,” Dr. Provencal explained, citing potential operational bottlenecks, budgetary limitations, market constraints, or geopolitical developments that may be affecting gold procurement.
He also pointed to internal challenges, including the regulatory transition from PMMC to GoldBod, and the possible impact of illegal mining, smuggling, or gold diversion.
Dr Provencal however emphasised that gold reserve growth remains a critical national economic priority and urged the government to take proactive measures.
“We must increase transparency around monthly reserve accumulation targets and performance,” he wrote.
He further recommended establishing strategic buffers or contingency plans to cushion shortfalls and restore momentum.
In conclusion, Dr Provencal made an appeal saying, “A focus on improving the current run-rate to the previous rate will ensure we’re on track to fixing our key fundamental – RESERVES!”
Meanwhile, the Bank of Ghana (BoG), in a recent public update, reported that the country’s gold reserves stood at 31.37 tonnes as of April 30, 2025, marking a sustained upward trend in the central bank’s effort to bolster foreign exchange reserves and reinforce monetary policy credibility.
The April figure reflects a modest increase from 31.01 tonnes in March 2025, continuing the growth trajectory that began in May 2023, when reserves were just 8.78 tonnes.
The more than threefold increase over the past two years highlights a decisive policy shift by the central bank, which has been leveraging Ghana’s gold production through the Domestic Gold Purchase Programme to support macroeconomic stability.
Read his post below:
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