Fitch Solutions has reaffirmed its projection that Ghana’s economy will expand by 4.2% in 2025. This estimate slightly exceeds the International Monetary Fund’s forecast of 4% and the World Bank’s projection of 3.9%.
The UK-based research firm attributes its outlook to historically high gold prices, which are expected to cushion the Ghanaian economy against a global slowdown triggered by rising tariffs.
Higher gold prices are anticipated to strengthen government revenue, enhance foreign exchange earnings, and help sustain currency stability.
The report also highlights that Ghana is relatively less vulnerable to increasing trade restrictions from the United States, given that its primary exports—gold and crude oil—are not directly affected by the tariffs introduced by President Trump’s administration.
Moreover, the US constitutes only about 4% to 5% of Ghana’s total exports. In contrast, Ghana’s trade relations are more heavily oriented toward China and European countries, particularly Switzerland and the Netherlands.
While acknowledging potential risks from broader global economic headwinds, Fitch Solutions believes the anticipated gains from gold exports will likely offset these challenges by bolstering international reserves and supporting exchange rate stability through central bank interventions.