The recent plunge in crude oil prices on the international market may offer some relief at the fuel pumps, but it poses a significant threat to Ghana’s revenue projections — a development that could derail Ghana’s effort of achieving its fiscal policy target.
In the 2025 budget, government is banking on over one billion dollars in revenue from crude oil exports, based on a benchmark price of $74 per barrel.
However, in the last two weeks global oil prices have been fluctuating between $61 and $65 per barrel, well below the forecast, and analysts warn of a potential shortfall in projected earnings.
The drop in prices is largely driven by weakening global demand and fears of an impending recession, with many analysts predicting a further decline. This, they caution, could derail Ghana’s revenue targets, further tightening the fiscal space.
Fitch Solutions in its recent report indicated that Sub-Saharan Africa oil-exporting markets will come under significant pressure should global oil prices fail to recover.
Brent crude prices have dropped by around 14.9% since April 2 2025 with rising fears of a global economic slowdown being exacerbated by the decision by OPEC+ to accelerate the return of its cut barrels to market.
The situation is particularly concerning given the potential dip in revenue from non-traditional exports due to new import tariff hikes by the U.S. — an added blow to the country’s already stretched finances.
On the flip side, some market analysts argue that lower crude prices could lead to reduced fuel costs locally.
This may help ease inflationary pressures and offer some stability to the cedi, providing a glimmer of relief amid the broader economic uncertainty.
Already, Deputy Finance Minister, Thomas Ampem Nyarko has announced that the government will soon engage transport operators to reduce fares in response to declining fuel prices.
Speaking during an interview on the sidelines of the Kwahu Business Forum at Kwahu Mpraeso on Saturday, April 19, Mr. Nyarko emphasized the positive impact this move could have on inflation.