\n
ABC News has projected Trump will carry the state of North Carolina and its 16 Electoral College votes. Although Harris was not likely to carry that state anyway, the projections still hurts her; as you can see using our handy-dandy election simulator, when we restrict the set of possible Electoral College outcomes to ones that include a Trump win in North Carolina and Florida, Harris loses ground probabilistically because those outcomes are likelier to occur in simulations with more Republican victories than not.<\/p>\n
Internally here at 538, we have also been running a version of this model that updates itself with a likely win in Georgia, based on how few votes are left there, as well as a tight race in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, based on the lagging Democratic turnout there. That model assigns a 6-in-100 chance of Harris winning the majority of Electoral College votes after everything is said and done.<\/p>\n
To be clear: That 6 percent chance is not nothing. It’s possible that our models are extrapolating incorrectly about outstanding urban votes in Wisconsin, for example, where about 24% of the vote is left to be counted, or inferring incorrectly the result in Nevada, where no votes have been counted yet. But those states don’t have enough votes to put Harris over the top if she loses Pennsylvania, anyway. There, 84% of the vote has been counted, and Harris trails Trump by 3 percentage points.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
ABC News has projected Trump will carry the state of North Carolina and its 16 Electoral College votes. Although Harris was not likely to carry that state anyway, the projections still hurts her; as you can see using our handy-dandy election simulator, when we restrict the set of possible Electoral College outcomes to ones that […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":246464,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[11],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-246463","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-top-news"],"yoast_head":"\n
Republicans gain control of the Senate, ABC News projects - Ghanamma.com<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.ghanamma.com\/2024\/11\/06\/republicans-gain-control-of-the-senate-abc-news-projects\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Republicans gain control of the Senate, ABC News projects - Ghanamma.com\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"ABC News has projected Trump will carry the state of North Carolina and its 16 Electoral College votes. Although Harris was not likely to carry that state anyway, the projections still hurts her; as you can see using our handy-dandy election simulator, when we restrict the set of possible Electoral College outcomes to ones that […]\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.ghanamma.com\/2024\/11\/06\/republicans-gain-control-of-the-senate-abc-news-projects\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Ghanamma.com\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2024-11-06T08:25:15+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.ghanamma.com\/2024\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/5be55c608d7180c2f4ccea06a58f1de2.png\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"720\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"405\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Ghana News\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Ghana News\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"1 minute\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.ghanamma.com\\\/2024\\\/11\\\/06\\\/republicans-gain-control-of-the-senate-abc-news-projects\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.ghanamma.com\\\/2024\\\/11\\\/06\\\/republicans-gain-control-of-the-senate-abc-news-projects\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Ghana News\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.ghanamma.com\\\/2024\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/c70749f3edfbfcd92d45e933f0fe10b5\"},\"headline\":\"Republicans gain control of the Senate, ABC News projects\",\"datePublished\":\"2024-11-06T08:25:15+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.ghanamma.com\\\/2024\\\/11\\\/06\\\/republicans-gain-control-of-the-senate-abc-news-projects\\\/\"},\"wordCount\":243,\"commentCount\":0,\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.ghanamma.com\\\/2024\\\/11\\\/06\\\/republicans-gain-control-of-the-senate-abc-news-projects\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.ghanamma.com\\\/2024\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2024\\\/11\\\/5be55c608d7180c2f4ccea06a58f1de2.png\",\"articleSection\":[\"Top News\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/www.ghanamma.com\\\/2024\\\/11\\\/06\\\/republicans-gain-control-of-the-senate-abc-news-projects\\\/#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.ghanamma.com\\\/2024\\\/11\\\/06\\\/republicans-gain-control-of-the-senate-abc-news-projects\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.ghanamma.com\\\/2024\\\/11\\\/06\\\/republicans-gain-control-of-the-senate-abc-news-projects\\\/\",\"name\":\"Republicans gain control of the Senate, ABC News projects - Ghanamma.com\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.ghanamma.com\\\/2024\\\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.ghanamma.com\\\/2024\\\/11\\\/06\\\/republicans-gain-control-of-the-senate-abc-news-projects\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.ghanamma.com\\\/2024\\\/11\\\/06\\\/republicans-gain-control-of-the-senate-abc-news-projects\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.ghanamma.com\\\/2024\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2024\\\/11\\\/5be55c608d7180c2f4ccea06a58f1de2.png\",\"datePublished\":\"2024-11-06T08:25:15+00:00\",\"author\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.ghanamma.com\\\/2024\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/c70749f3edfbfcd92d45e933f0fe10b5\"},\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.ghanamma.com\\\/2024\\\/11\\\/06\\\/republicans-gain-control-of-the-senate-abc-news-projects\\\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/www.ghanamma.com\\\/2024\\\/11\\\/06\\\/republicans-gain-control-of-the-senate-abc-news-projects\\\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.ghanamma.com\\\/2024\\\/11\\\/06\\\/republicans-gain-control-of-the-senate-abc-news-projects\\\/#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.ghanamma.com\\\/2024\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2024\\\/11\\\/5be55c608d7180c2f4ccea06a58f1de2.png\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.ghanamma.com\\\/2024\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2024\\\/11\\\/5be55c608d7180c2f4ccea06a58f1de2.png\",\"width\":720,\"height\":405},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.ghanamma.com\\\/2024\\\/11\\\/06\\\/republicans-gain-control-of-the-senate-abc-news-projects\\\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.ghanamma.com\\\/2024\\\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"Republicans gain control of the Senate, ABC News projects\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.ghanamma.com\\\/2024\\\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.ghanamma.com\\\/2024\\\/\",\"name\":\"Ghanamma.com\",\"description\":\"Ghana mma provides breaking news, top stories in Ghana, Africa, business, entertainment, politics and more.\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.ghanamma.com\\\/2024\\\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":{\"@type\":\"PropertyValueSpecification\",\"valueRequired\":true,\"valueName\":\"search_term_string\"}}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.ghanamma.com\\\/2024\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/c70749f3edfbfcd92d45e933f0fe10b5\",\"name\":\"Ghana News\",\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/secure.gravatar.com\\\/avatar\\\/22cb97c2b08df229330efb2b8c2645feaae8d3ca3ee434035fbb668b5b82f570?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/secure.gravatar.com\\\/avatar\\\/22cb97c2b08df229330efb2b8c2645feaae8d3ca3ee434035fbb668b5b82f570?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/secure.gravatar.com\\\/avatar\\\/22cb97c2b08df229330efb2b8c2645feaae8d3ca3ee434035fbb668b5b82f570?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"caption\":\"Ghana News\"},\"sameAs\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/www.ghanamma.com\\\/2024\"],\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.ghanamma.com\\\/2024\\\/author\\\/ghanamma\\\/\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"Republicans gain control of the Senate, ABC News projects - Ghanamma.com","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/www.ghanamma.com\/2024\/11\/06\/republicans-gain-control-of-the-senate-abc-news-projects\/","og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"Republicans gain control of the Senate, ABC News projects - Ghanamma.com","og_description":"ABC News has projected Trump will carry the state of North Carolina and its 16 Electoral College votes. Although Harris was not likely to carry that state anyway, the projections still hurts her; as you can see using our handy-dandy election simulator, when we restrict the set of possible Electoral College outcomes to ones that […]","og_url":"https:\/\/www.ghanamma.com\/2024\/11\/06\/republicans-gain-control-of-the-senate-abc-news-projects\/","og_site_name":"Ghanamma.com","article_published_time":"2024-11-06T08:25:15+00:00","og_image":[{"width":720,"height":405,"url":"https:\/\/www.ghanamma.com\/2024\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/5be55c608d7180c2f4ccea06a58f1de2.png","type":"image\/png"}],"author":"Ghana News","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_misc":{"Written by":"Ghana News","Est. reading time":"1 minute"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"Article","@id":"https:\/\/www.ghanamma.com\/2024\/11\/06\/republicans-gain-control-of-the-senate-abc-news-projects\/#article","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.ghanamma.com\/2024\/11\/06\/republicans-gain-control-of-the-senate-abc-news-projects\/"},"author":{"name":"Ghana News","@id":"https:\/\/www.ghanamma.com\/2024\/#\/schema\/person\/c70749f3edfbfcd92d45e933f0fe10b5"},"headline":"Republicans gain control of the Senate, ABC News projects","datePublished":"2024-11-06T08:25:15+00:00","mainEntityOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.ghanamma.com\/2024\/11\/06\/republicans-gain-control-of-the-senate-abc-news-projects\/"},"wordCount":243,"commentCount":0,"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.ghanamma.com\/2024\/11\/06\/republicans-gain-control-of-the-senate-abc-news-projects\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/www.ghanamma.com\/2024\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/5be55c608d7180c2f4ccea06a58f1de2.png","articleSection":["Top News"],"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"CommentAction","name":"Comment","target":["https:\/\/www.ghanamma.com\/2024\/11\/06\/republicans-gain-control-of-the-senate-abc-news-projects\/#respond"]}]},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/www.ghanamma.com\/2024\/11\/06\/republicans-gain-control-of-the-senate-abc-news-projects\/","url":"https:\/\/www.ghanamma.com\/2024\/11\/06\/republicans-gain-control-of-the-senate-abc-news-projects\/","name":"Republicans gain control of the Senate, ABC News projects - Ghanamma.com","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.ghanamma.com\/2024\/#website"},"primaryImageOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.ghanamma.com\/2024\/11\/06\/republicans-gain-control-of-the-senate-abc-news-projects\/#primaryimage"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.ghanamma.com\/2024\/11\/06\/republicans-gain-control-of-the-senate-abc-news-projects\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/www.ghanamma.com\/2024\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/5be55c608d7180c2f4ccea06a58f1de2.png","datePublished":"2024-11-06T08:25:15+00:00","author":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.ghanamma.com\/2024\/#\/schema\/person\/c70749f3edfbfcd92d45e933f0fe10b5"},"breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.ghanamma.com\/2024\/11\/06\/republicans-gain-control-of-the-senate-abc-news-projects\/#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/www.ghanamma.com\/2024\/11\/06\/republicans-gain-control-of-the-senate-abc-news-projects\/"]}]},{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/www.ghanamma.com\/2024\/11\/06\/republicans-gain-control-of-the-senate-abc-news-projects\/#primaryimage","url":"https:\/\/www.ghanamma.com\/2024\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/5be55c608d7180c2f4ccea06a58f1de2.png","contentUrl":"https:\/\/www.ghanamma.com\/2024\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/5be55c608d7180c2f4ccea06a58f1de2.png","width":720,"height":405},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/www.ghanamma.com\/2024\/11\/06\/republicans-gain-control-of-the-senate-abc-news-projects\/#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Home","item":"https:\/\/www.ghanamma.com\/2024\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"Republicans gain control of the Senate, ABC News projects"}]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/www.ghanamma.com\/2024\/#website","url":"https:\/\/www.ghanamma.com\/2024\/","name":"Ghanamma.com","description":"Ghana mma provides breaking news, top stories in Ghana, Africa, business, entertainment, politics and more.","potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/www.ghanamma.com\/2024\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":{"@type":"PropertyValueSpecification","valueRequired":true,"valueName":"search_term_string"}}],"inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":"Person","@id":"https:\/\/www.ghanamma.com\/2024\/#\/schema\/person\/c70749f3edfbfcd92d45e933f0fe10b5","name":"Ghana News","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/22cb97c2b08df229330efb2b8c2645feaae8d3ca3ee434035fbb668b5b82f570?s=96&d=mm&r=g","url":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/22cb97c2b08df229330efb2b8c2645feaae8d3ca3ee434035fbb668b5b82f570?s=96&d=mm&r=g","contentUrl":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/22cb97c2b08df229330efb2b8c2645feaae8d3ca3ee434035fbb668b5b82f570?s=96&d=mm&r=g","caption":"Ghana News"},"sameAs":["https:\/\/www.ghanamma.com\/2024"],"url":"https:\/\/www.ghanamma.com\/2024\/author\/ghanamma\/"}]}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.ghanamma.com\/2024\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/246463","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.ghanamma.com\/2024\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.ghanamma.com\/2024\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.ghanamma.com\/2024\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.ghanamma.com\/2024\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=246463"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.ghanamma.com\/2024\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/246463\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.ghanamma.com\/2024\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/246464"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.ghanamma.com\/2024\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=246463"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.ghanamma.com\/2024\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=246463"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.ghanamma.com\/2024\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=246463"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}