{"id":245190,"date":"2024-11-04T11:26:28","date_gmt":"2024-11-04T11:26:28","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.ghanamma.com\/2024\/11\/04\/anxiety-grips-emerging-markets-as-investors-slash-risk\/"},"modified":"2024-11-04T11:26:28","modified_gmt":"2024-11-04T11:26:28","slug":"anxiety-grips-emerging-markets-as-investors-slash-risk","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.ghanamma.com\/2024\/11\/04\/anxiety-grips-emerging-markets-as-investors-slash-risk\/","title":{"rendered":"Anxiety grips emerging markets as investors slash risk"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><\/p>\n<div>\n<p class=\"article-image\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/cdn.ghanaweb.com\/imagelib\/pics\/644\/64472429.295.jpg\" alt=\"US Vice President Kamala Harris and Donald Trump\" title=\"US Vice President Kamala Harris and Donald Trump\" width=\"295\" height=\"196\" \/> <span class=\"image_caption\"><span>US Vice President Kamala Harris and Donald Trump<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div style=\"-webkit-user-select: none; -webkit-touch-callout: none; -moz-user-select: none; -ms-user-select: none; user-select: none;\">\n<p id=\"article-123\">From Mexico City to Shanghai, traders whipsawed by a volatile year are preparing for a fresh political jolt: a US presidential election that\u2019s threatening to upend global trade and potentially roil the economic outlook across the developing world.<\/p>\n<p>As the race remained neck-and-neck in the runup to Tuesday\u2019s vote, investors were positioning for the fallout of a victory by Donald Trump, whose tariff and tax plans would likely curb imports and put upward pressure on US interest rates. Those bets could be seen getting pared in early Monday trading, with the latest polls casting more doubt on Trump\u2019s odds of victory.<\/p>\n<p>In recent weeks, hedge funds had been stepping up bets against the Mexican peso, sending it sliding to the lowest this year. The Chinese yuan slipped, too, as the dollar staged its biggest advance in over two years. Investors yanked money out of funds focused on developing countries\u2019 bonds and around the world, and emerging-market stocks just had their worst monthly loss since January.<\/p>\n<p>The price movements show the high stakes across emerging markets, which is leaving them primed for another round of selling or a rapid rebound if Vice President Kamala Harris is handed a victory at the polls.<\/p>\n<p>In \u201can election that is a complete toss up, it is very difficult to take active currency bets,\u201d said Arif Joshi, co-head of emerging-market debt at Lazard Asset Management, who said markets are pricing in some of the risks of voters returning Trump to the White House. That suggests a Harris win would be \u201ca structural bullish move for emerging markets.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Hints of that emerged on Monday, with the currencies of Poland, Mexico and South Africa among the biggest gainers as investors recalibrated their bets after some polls shifted in Harris\u2019s benefit.<\/p>\n<p>Trump would likely alter the status quo far more significantly than Harris, a former US senator who has served as President Joe Biden\u2019s vice president for the past four years. In emerging markets, the main risk stems from Trump\u2019s plan to enact tariffs, which would weaken their exports and demand for their currencies.<\/p>\n<p>Trump has also cast doubt on the US\u2019s commitment to alliances like the North Atlantic Treaty Organization and to Ukraine\u2019s efforts to defeat Russia\u2019s invasion. That has weighed on local bonds of some eastern European countries and pushed up Ukraine\u2019s dollar debt on wagers that Trump\u2019s election may push it to cut a ceasefire deal with Russia.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cI wouldn\u2019t be surprised to see a knee-jerk negative reaction if Trump is elected, with everybody kind of freaking out, and then starting to see if the approach is more pragmatic,\u201d said Robert Koenigsberger, founder and chief investment officer of Gramercy Funds Management.<\/p>\n<p>The outcome may not be clear on election night or even soon after if the results are close enough to trigger recounts or legal challenges. The power of the incoming president will also hinge heavily on whether their party controls Congress.<\/p>\n<p><b>What Bloomberg Strategists Say<\/b><\/p>\n<p>Export-driven emerging markets \u2014 save for China \u2014 were relatively unscathed during Donald Trump\u2019s first term in the White House, while countries with larger external debts took a hit from higher interest rates. A potential second Trump administration could be similar for EMs, depending largely on whether Trump imposes the global tariffs he\u2019s threatened and the direction of US dollar rates.<\/p>\n<p><b>Currencies<\/b><\/p>\n<p>The Mexican peso, which trades 24 hours a day and in sizable volumes, will likely be one of the first indications of how the results will affect emerging markets. Already, a volatility metric on the currency rose to the highest since the onset of the pandemic.<\/p>\n<p>JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. strategists Gisela Brant and Tania Escobedo Jacob predicted that the peso \u2014 which was over 20 to the dollar on Friday \u2014 could strengthen past 19 if Harris wins. On the flip side, Brad Bechtel at Jefferies says it may slip near the 22-per-dollar mark if Trump is elected. It was trading 0.8% stronger at 20.1165 per dollar as of 9 a.m. in London on Monday.<\/p>\n<p>Asian currencies including the Chinese yuan and the South Korean won might also come under pressure if tariff increases seem likely. The yuan slumped 1.6% in October, and its one-month implied volatility soared to the highest in two years.<\/p>\n<p><b>Bonds<\/b><\/p>\n<p>The impact will likely ripple out into global bond markets as well.<\/p>\n<p>El Salvador\u2019s government debt may gain if a Trump victory is seen as giving President Nayib Bukele the ability to use his relationship with the Republican to help secure a loan from the International Monetary Fund. Ukraine\u2019s bonds have also climbed ahead of the election on growing bets Trump\u2019s return will hasten the war\u2019s end.<\/p>\n<p>At the same time, that could be a \u201cnegative scenario for Poland and other members of NATO,\u201d according to Piotr Matys, a senior currency strategist at In Touch Capital Markets.<\/p>\n<p>Bonds denominated in local currency from Poland, Czech Republic and Hungary have lagged peers since the end of September, data compiled by Bloomberg show.<\/p>\n<p><b>Equities<\/b><\/p>\n<p>Trump\u2019s tariff plans carry particular risks for China, which he has singled out for levies of 60% or more just as its government is struggling to revive the faltering economy.<\/p>\n<p>Developing nations with high exposure to the US and heavy reliance on Chinese inputs could also face headwinds from an escalating trade war, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc. Stocks of companies in countries including South Korea and Taiwan could be affected by increased costs and supply-chain disruptions, the bank said.<\/p>\n<p>In Latin America, Morgan Stanley strategists including Nikolaj Lippmann are expecting a \u201crelief rally\u201d in Brazil and Mexico equities \u2014 supported by currency gains \u2014 under a Harris victory. Weakness is expected should Trump win, they said.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>US Vice President Kamala Harris and Donald Trump From Mexico City to Shanghai, traders whipsawed by a volatile year are preparing for a fresh political jolt: a US presidential election that\u2019s threatening to upend global trade and potentially roil the economic outlook across the developing world. As the race remained neck-and-neck in the runup to [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":243736,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[9],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-245190","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-business"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.8 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Anxiety grips emerging markets as investors slash risk - Ghanamma.com<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.ghanamma.com\/2024\/11\/04\/anxiety-grips-emerging-markets-as-investors-slash-risk\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Anxiety grips emerging markets as investors slash risk - Ghanamma.com\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"US Vice President Kamala Harris and Donald Trump From Mexico City to Shanghai, traders whipsawed by a volatile year are preparing for a fresh political jolt: a US presidential election that\u2019s threatening to upend global trade and potentially roil the economic outlook across the developing world. 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