{"id":227178,"date":"2024-10-07T08:26:08","date_gmt":"2024-10-07T08:26:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.ghanamma.com\/2024\/10\/07\/goldman-cuts-probability-of-us-recession-in-next-year-to-15\/"},"modified":"2024-10-07T08:26:08","modified_gmt":"2024-10-07T08:26:08","slug":"goldman-cuts-probability-of-us-recession-in-next-year-to-15","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.ghanamma.com\/2024\/10\/07\/goldman-cuts-probability-of-us-recession-in-next-year-to-15\/","title":{"rendered":"Goldman cuts probability of US recession in next year to 15%"},"content":{"rendered":"

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The probability for a US recession over the next year is back at the long-term average of 15% after a blowout payrolls report for September reduced the chances for such a downturn, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. economists said.<\/p>\n

In early August, Goldman increased the chance of a downturn to 25% from 15%, before paring the call to 20% in the middle of that month as the labor market and retail sectors showed signs of resilience.<\/p>\n

Payrolls data on Friday trounced forecasts by rising 254,000 in September, while the unemployment rate fell to 4.1%.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe have cut our 12-month US recession probability back to the unconditional long-term average of 15%,\u201d Goldman\u2019s chief economist Jan Hatzius wrote in a report to clients late Sunday. <\/p>\n

The data \u201creinforced our conviction\u201d that the Federal Reserve will slow the pace of its interest-rate cuts to 25 basis points in November, he said.<\/p>\n

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