In the aftermath of the 2024 elections, new exit poll data from the Ashanti Region, a crucial stronghold in Ghanaian politics, has offered valuable insights into voting behavior and the emerging political trends in the area. According to Global AnalyTics, the survey reveals clear dominance for the New Patriotic Party (NPP), while also spotlighting interesting patterns of cross-party voting, floating voter preferences, and internal divisions within the opposition National Democratic Congress (NDC).
The exit poll indicates that 64% of respondents identified as NPP voters, reaffirming the region’s reputation as an NPP stronghold. The NDC managed to secure 22% of the respondents, followed by 8% floating voters (FV) and 5% aligning with other political parties. This breakdown confirms the NPP’s entrenched dominance while emphasizing the NDC’s uphill task in the region.
However, a deeper look into the data reveals some noteworthy shifts:
1. Among the NPP voters (64%), 95% voted for Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia (DMB), the NPP’s presidential candidate, while an unexpected 3% crossed over to support John Dramani Mahama (JDM) of the NDC, with the remaining 2% voting for other candidates.
2. The NDC voters displayed greater party loyalty, with 89% supporting JDM. Yet, 9% surprisingly backed DMB, and 2% opted for other candidates.
3. Floating voters were evenly split, with 36% each choosing DMB and JDM, while a significant 28% supported alternative candidates.
4. Among supporters of other parties, a dominant 79% voted for alternative candidates, while 11% supported DMB and 10% voted for JDM.
The data uncovers notable crossover voting trends that highlight underlying divisions within the NDC. A striking 9% of NDC voters broke ranks to support DMB, underscoring a level of dissatisfaction or disunity among their core base. Further analysis suggests this division stems from traditional and other religious groups within the NDC, not the Muslim constituency as previously speculated. DMB’s ability to attract votes from these groups signals a strategic inroad that may have boosted the NPP’s overall performance.
Conversely, JDM’s relative success within the NPP and floating voter bases highlights his campaign’s broader appeal. While his 3% gain among NPP voters appears minimal, it reflects the erosion of complete voter loyalty within the NPP, particularly in the highly competitive electoral climate of 2024.
The floating voter segment, making up 8% of the respondents, remains a critical swing demographic in determining electoral outcomes. The split in support, with 36% favoring each of the major candidates (DMB and JDM) and 28% leaning toward alternatives, reinforces the notion that these voters are issue-driven and less ideologically aligned. This data reveals both opportunities and challenges for the major parties in consolidating floating voter support.
The Ashanti Region remains a formidable NPP fortress, but JDM’s ability to make inroads—particularly among floating voters and disaffected NPP supporters—signals evolving voter dynamics. The disunity within the NDC, rooted in traditional and other religious affiliations, has hindered their prospects, despite their significant base in the region.
For DMB and the NPP, the focus must be on maintaining voter loyalty while addressing emerging dissatisfaction. For JDM and the NDC, bridging internal divisions and capitalizing on floating voter sentiments are key to improving their standing in the region.
The Ashanti exit poll data not only reflects current voting patterns but also offers a roadmap for both major parties as they recalibrate their strategies in the lead-up to future elections.
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