The New York Times’ election needle projected former President Donald Trump is “likely” win a second term in the White House by replicating his 2016 success in puncturing the so-called “blue wall.”
The paper’s forecast also projected Trump would win the national popular vote, something no Republican has done since 2004 when George W. Bush won his reelection bid against Democrat John Kerry.
Vice President Kamala Harris’s only path to victory was predicted to be take Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin.
Just before 11 p.m. ET, Times chief political analyst Nate Cohn wrote:
Donald J. Trump has pulled ahead of Kamala Harris in the Electoral College tally. But no swing states have been called, and the race will hinge on their results.
[…]
“For the first time tonight, we consider Trump likely to win the presidency. He has an advantage in each of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. To win, Harris would need to sweep all three. There is still a lot of vote left, but in the voting so far, Trump is narrowly but discernibly ahead.”