{"id":90620,"date":"2023-08-10T13:29:58","date_gmt":"2023-08-10T13:29:58","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.ghanamma.com\/2023\/08\/10\/supercomputer-predicts-2023-24-premier-league-table\/"},"modified":"2023-08-10T13:29:58","modified_gmt":"2023-08-10T13:29:58","slug":"supercomputer-predicts-2023-24-premier-league-table","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.ghanamma.com\/2023\/08\/10\/supercomputer-predicts-2023-24-premier-league-table\/","title":{"rendered":"Supercomputer predicts 2023\/24 Premier League table"},"content":{"rendered":"

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Premier League trophy<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n

Joao Pinto, the captain of Porto\u2019s European Cup-winning side in 1987, infamously said: \u201cI only make predictions after the game.\u201d<\/p>\n

The powers of computational analysis have been significantly developed in the subsequent decades \u2013 although, a prediction in May would still be slightly more accurate.<\/p>\n

While Pinto has ten months to mull over his best guess, less patient spectators can turn to\u00a0Opta<\/em>\u2018s fearsome supercomputer. The sports statistics giant has run 10,000 simulations of the entire fixture list for the coming campaign, where each team\u2019s strength is calculated as a mix of betting market odds and a hierarchical Elo-based rating system.<\/p>\n

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Here\u2019s how the 2023\/24 Premier League season is expected to shake out.<\/p>\n

Supercomputer predicts 2023\/24 Premier League table<\/p>\n

\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Predicted position<\/th>\nTeam<\/th>\nPredicted points<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
1<\/td>\nMan City<\/td>\n88.81<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2<\/td>\nArsenal<\/td>\n72.23<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
3<\/td>\nLiverpool<\/td>\n71.47<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
4<\/td>\nMan Utd<\/td>\n68.49<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
5<\/td>\nNewcastle<\/td>\n61.23<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
6<\/td>\nChelsea<\/td>\n58.90<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
7<\/td>\nBrighton<\/td>\n57.51<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
8<\/td>\nTottenham<\/td>\n56.20<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
9<\/td>\nAston Villa<\/td>\n55.38<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
10<\/td>\nBrentford<\/td>\n53.20<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
11<\/td>\nWest Ham<\/td>\n51.45<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
12<\/td>\nCrystal Palace<\/td>\n47.40<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
13<\/td>\nFulham<\/td>\n46.18<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
14<\/td>\nWolves<\/td>\n43.45<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
15<\/td>\nBurnley<\/td>\n39.39<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
16<\/td>\nNottingham Forest<\/td>\n39.34<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
17<\/td>\nEverton<\/td>\n39.14<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
18<\/td>\nBournemouth<\/td>\n36.52<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
19<\/td>\nSheffield United<\/td>\n36.26<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
20<\/td>\nLuton Town<\/td>\n34.19<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/figure>\n

Data via\u00a0Opta, correct as of 8 August 2023<\/em><\/p>\n

After becoming the second English men\u2019s side ever to win the European Treble, and just the tenth in\u00a0history, Manchester City are unsurprisingly ranked as favourites to retain their domestic crown.<\/p>\n

However, the crushing scale of their status as the team to beat is eye-catching. According to\u00a0Opta\u2019s<\/em>\u00a0calculations, City have a 90.2% chance of winning the Premier League. This comfortably makes the English top flight the most one-sided division among Europe\u2019s elite.<\/p>\n

For comparison, Bayern Munich have a 69.3% chance of winning a 12th consecutive Bundesliga crown, Paris Saint-Germain win Ligue 1 in 57.3% of\u00a0Opta\u2019s<\/em>\u00a0simulations while Real Madrid (48.4%) and Inter (43.6%) are marginal favourites in Spain and Italy respectively.<\/p>\n

Arsenal\u00a0may have led the Premier League for 248 days last season but only have a 4.1% chance of ending the final Sunday above City and everyone else in 2024. In fact, Arsenal are more than twice as likely to finish fifth (9.0%) as they are to top the table.<\/p>\n

Liverpool (3.5%) and\u00a0Manchester United\u00a0(1.7%) are the only other clubs with more than a fractional chance of lifting the league title. Although, all of Newcastle United, Chelsea, Brighton, Tottenham Hotspur, Aston Villa and Brentford won the league in at least one of\u00a0Opta\u2019s<\/em>\u00a010,000 simulations.<\/p>\n

At the other end of the table, the supercomputer hasn\u2019t been too adventurous with its candidates for relegation.\u00a0Championship play-off final\u00a0winners Luton Town are heavy favourites to prop up the division next May. In the Hatters\u2019 first top-flight campaign since 1992, Luton have a 62.3% chance of dropping back down in to the Championship.<\/p>\n

Fellow second-tier escapees Sheffield United also have the spectre of demotion hanging over them. Bournemouth have been tethered with a comparative relegation probability to the Blades (49%) despite securing survival with two games to spare last term.<\/p>\n

The Cherries, perhaps aware of the doom-laden statistics waiting in the chamber, replaced manager Gary O\u2019Neil with the highly rated Andoni Iraola during the off-season. Iraola defied the odds to channel the chaos of Rayo Vallecano in to consecutive top-12\u00a0La Liga\u00a0finishes before swapping Spain for the south coast this summer.<\/p>\n

Bournemouth systematically called out every pundit that predicted their relegation once safety was confirmed last season in an uncompromising\u00a0video\u00a0across their social media channels. Let the record show that\u00a0Opta\u2019s<\/em>\u00a0supercomputer \u2013 rather than this writer \u2013 has the Cherries down in 18th by the end of 2023\/24.<\/p>\n

Championship champions Burnley are expected to finish in a lofty 15th place. Vincent Kompany\u2019s Clarets are relegated in a third of\u00a0Opta\u2019s<\/em>\u00a0simulations but Nottingham Forest, Everton and the aforementioned trio are all more likely to go down.<\/p>\n

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