<\/p>\n
Ghana\u2019s Ministry of Finance has said \u201cit is most unfortunate to note that foreign investors and market participants are on edge following the impasse in parliament, in relation to the passage of the E-levy Bill\u201d.<\/p>\n
Parliament degenerated into mayhem in the dying embers of 2021 during a debate on the controversial 1.75% levy meant to affect most electronic transactions.<\/p>\n
The free-for-all brawl, as a result of a hung parliament, has left the levy, proposed in the 2022 budget, hanging.<\/p>\n
A recent article by Bloomberg said among other things that the era of cheap money draws to an end as bondholders are no longer prepared to cut Ghana any slack.<\/p>\n
It said the West African nation\u2019s dollar bonds have slumped 10% in 10 days, moving deeper into distressed territory as investors judge that re-financing debt in the Eurobond market won\u2019t be an option when the Federal Reserve hikes rates and budget targets remain elusive.<\/p>\n
The extra premium demanded on Ghana\u2019s sovereign dollar debt, according to Bloomberg, jumped on Tuesday to an average 1,145 basis points, from 683 basis points in September while its $27 billion of foreign debt had the worst start to the year among emerging markets, extending last year\u2019s 14% loss.<\/p>\n
Reacting to the article, the Ministry of Finance said: \u201cThe market seems to now be pricing into our bonds the perceived risks of having a slim majority in parliament and the consequences thereof\u201d.<\/p>\n
Also, it noted: \u201cThe markets also seem to be concerned that this might impact the government\u2019s ability to successfully pass and implement some of its major revenue policy measures as presented in the 2022 Budget\u201d.<\/p>\n
The ministry said it would like to state that \u201ca healthy debate in a vibrant parliament is a critical part of Ghana\u2019s growing democratic credentials and by no means should it be deemed to be a fiscal risk\u201d.<\/p>\n
It said the \u201cgovernment is confident that when parliament resumes sitting this month, the E-Levy Bill, which has already been discussed and approved by the Finance Committee of Parliament, will be passed\u201d.<\/p>\n
Furthermore, the ministry said it wishes to state that the \u201cgovernment is on track to meet its non-oil tax revenue target for 2021 of GHS 57.05bn (13.16% of GDP)\u201d, adding: \u201cThe 2022 non-oil tax revenue target of GHS 80.3bn moves us to tax revenue-to -GDP of approximately 16%, which is still below our medium revenue target of 18-20% of GDP\u201d.<\/p>\n
\u201cWe are, however, confident that we can meet the 2022 revenue target and that the E-Levy will help us accomplish this\u201d.<\/p>\n
Meanwhile, the ministry said the Bloomberg titled: \u2018Ghana Debt Moves Deeper into Distress as Investors lose Patience\u2019 was riddled with \u201cserious factual errors\u201d and reliant on \u201cwrong historical debt-to-GDP figures\u201d, which, if not corrected, could cause investors to have the jitters. <\/p>\n
\u201cThe Bloomberg article gave wrong historical debt-to-GDP figures\u201d, adding: \u201cIt is essential we make the correction that Ghana\u2019s debt-to-GDP figures, a decade ago, were 39.67% and 47.80% for 2011 and 2012, respectively, and not 31.4% as stated in the Bloomberg publication\u201d.<\/p>\n
The Ministry of Finance said: \u201cIt is most unfortunate to note that foreign investors and market participants are on edge following the impasse in parliament, in relation to the passage of the E-levy Bill\u201d.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe market seems to now be pricing into our bonds the perceived risks of having a slim majority in parliament and the consequences thereof. The markets also seem to be concerned that this might impact the government\u2019s ability to successfully pass and implement some of its major revenue policy measures as presented in the 2022 Budget\u201d.<\/p>\n
Read the full statement below:<\/b><\/p>\n
On Thursday, 13th January 2022, the attention of the Ministry was drawn to a widely circulated Bloomberg article captioned \u2013 \u201cGhana Debt Moves Deeper into Distress as Investors lose Patience\u201d.<\/p>\n
There are some serious factual errors in the article, which may give investors some cause for concern, if not corrected.<\/p>\n
For example, Bloomberg stated 81.5% as the end-of-year debt-to-GDP ratio.<\/p>\n
This is incorrect. Our provisional nominal debt-to-GDP, as of the end of November 2021, was 78.4%, which is the latest data available.<\/p>\n
December\u2019s revenue collections are seasonally the largest for any year, it is unlikely that our financing requirements in December will result in us exceeding 80% debt-to-GDP by December 2021.<\/p>\n
The Bloomberg article gave wrong historical debt-to-GDP figures. It is essential we make the correction that Ghana\u2019s debt-to-GDP figures, a decade ago, were 39.67% and 47.80% for 2011 and 2012, respectively, and not 31.4% as stated in the Bloomberg publication.<\/p>\n
Again, it is important to note that for the period prior to the COVID-19 global pandemic, Ghana experienced an average debt-to-GDP ratio of 56.4% from 2015 to 2019.<\/p>\n
In 2020, Ghana\u2019s GDP grew by 0.4% because of the impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on the economy.<\/p>\n
Financing of the additional COVID-19-related expenditures, in addition to revised revenue targets, due to the impact of the pandemic, led to an increase in debt-to-GDP from 62.4% in 2019 to 76.1% in 2020.<\/p>\n
The current 78.4% debt-to-GDP ratio as of the end of November 2021 indicates rather a reduction in the rate of debt accumulation (i.e. declined by half to 18% as of November 2021 from 34% in 2020).<\/p>\n
This attests to an improvement in our debt and liability management, contrary to what the article seeks to suggest.<\/p>\n
Furthermore, with the positive primary balance target for 2022 \u2013 one of the key fiscal anchors in 2022 \u2013 Ghana should see improved stability and reduction in the debt-to-GDP ratio in 2022 and through the medium term.<\/p>\n
It is most unfortunate to note that foreign investors and market participants are on edge following the impasse in parliament, in relation to the passage of the E-levy Bill.<\/p>\n
The market seems to now be pricing into our bonds the perceived risks of having a slim majority in parliament and the consequences thereof.<\/p>\n
The markets also seem to be concerned that this might impact the government\u2019s ability to successfully pass and implement some of its major revenue policy measures as presented in the 2022 Budget.<\/p>\n
The ministry would like to state that a healthy debate in a vibrant parliament is a critical part of Ghana\u2019s growing democratic credentials and by no means should it be deemed to be a fiscal risk.<\/p>\n
The government is confident that when parliament resumes sitting this month, the E-Levy Bill, which has already been discussed and approved by the Finance Committee of Parliament, will be passed.<\/p>\n
The ministry also wishes to state that the government is on track to meet its non-oil tax revenue target for 2021 of GHS 57.05bn (13.16% of GDP).<\/p>\n
The 2022 non-oil tax revenue target of GHS 80.3bn moves us to tax revenue-to -GDP of approximately 16%, which is still below our medium revenue target of 18-20% of GDP.<\/p>\n
We are, however, confident that we can meet the 2022 revenue target and that the E-Levy will help us accomplish this.<\/p>\n
The ministry will continue to monitor and adjust expenditures accordingly, as has been done successfully in the past, using the commitment control (including the quarterly allotment mechanism) tools at our disposal.<\/p>\n
Ghana does not face any imminent external imbalances or reserves shortfall. The reserves, at over 5x import cover, is well above our internal target of 4 months and better than the average over the previous two decades.<\/p>\n
Foreign financing of the 2022 budget of US$1.5 billion is also bolstered by the balance of SDR\u2019s of approximately US$700 million.<\/p>\n
The balance can be financed through the use of alternate instruments including term loans, bilateral and multilateral loan facilities and a tap-in of our domestic dollar bonds, amongst others.<\/p>\n
In December 2021, the Ministry of Finance issued a 5-year domestic dollar bond at 6%. These bonds are currently trading at a yield of ~5.5% on the local market.<\/p>\n
Like all emerging market countries with foreign investor participation in our domestic debt, Ghana is susceptible to a tighter US Monetary Policy stance.<\/p>\n
However, Ghana has healthy reserves of over 5 months of import cover amidst reduced levels of foreign investor participation in our domestic market.<\/p>\n
As of November 2021, our data indicates that only 16.55% of our domestic debt is held by non-residents investors as compared to 38.44% and 30.01% in 2017 and 2018, respectively.<\/p>\n
Whereas we acknowledge that the current trading levels of our Eurobonds have widened, we do not believe that it is warranted nor do we believe that it reflects the strong underlying fundamentals of the Ghanaian economy and our rapid rebound post the COVID-19 pandemic as evidenced by the healthy GDP growth of 6.6% for the third quarter alone and an average of 5.2% for the first three quarters of 2021.<\/p>\n
While the end-year growth target for 2021 has been revised to 4.4%, high-frequency indicators suggest a continued strong momentum in economic activity in Q4.<\/p>\n
Despite the global challenges that exist on the back of the COVID-19 pandemic and especially in emerging markets, with risks such as financial stress and sluggish progress on vaccination as recently cited by the World Bank, the ministry would like to reassure all its investors that Ghana\u2019s fundamentals remain strong as attested to by our growth in Q3-2021, the Ghana Revenue Authority exceeding its target in 2021, and our strong reserves position.<\/p>\n
Ghana will continue to show leadership in this difficult post-Covid era to build a sustainable, entrepreneurial nation while ensuring that growth, job creation and fiscal consolidation are not compromised, in line with the President\u2019s vision of a Ghana Beyond Aid.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Ghana\u2019s Ministry of Finance has said \u201cit is most unfortunate to note that foreign investors and market participants are on edge following the impasse in parliament, in relation to the passage of the E-levy Bill\u201d. Parliament degenerated into mayhem in the dying embers of 2021 during a debate on the controversial 1.75% levy meant to […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":300822,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[72],"tags":[2097,2098,2099,2070,664,2100,2071,2101,436,2102],"class_list":["post-754643","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-business","tag-blames","tag-edge","tag-elevy","tag-impasse","tag-investors","tag-majority","tag-mof","tag-parliamentary","tag-putting","tag-slim"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.ghanamma.com\/2022\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/754643","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.ghanamma.com\/2022\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.ghanamma.com\/2022\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.ghanamma.com\/2022\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.ghanamma.com\/2022\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=754643"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.ghanamma.com\/2022\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/754643\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.ghanamma.com\/2022\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=754643"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.ghanamma.com\/2022\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=754643"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.ghanamma.com\/2022\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=754643"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}