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By Erin Blakemore<\/p>\n
Using a new model for projecting the number of people with Type 1 diabetes worldwide, members of an international team of researchers estimate up to 17.4 million cases by 2040, double the number of people known to have the disease today.<\/p>\n
A study published in the Lancet Diabetes & Endocrinology says 8.4 million people now live with Type 1 diabetes, which occurs when the pancreas produces little or no insulin, leading to a build-up in blood sugar that can be disabling or fatal. <\/p>\n
Symptoms include excessive thirst and urination, blurred vision, exhaustion, dry skin and unintended weight loss.<\/p>\n
Tracking has improved in recent years, but Type 1 diabetes is under-represented. In addition, because many countries don\u2019t collect Type 1 diabetes data, the numbers have historically skewed toward North America and Europe.<\/p>\n
To counter the spotty numbers, the researchers created a model that used the available data to predict Type 1 diabetes worldwide.<\/p>\n
The estimates counter some myths about the disease, which was once called juvenile diabetes because its onset often occurs during childhood. <\/p>\n
Yet the majority of people diagnosed with the disease are aged between 20 and 59, and more adults than children are diagnosed each year.<\/p>\n
Children, however, are more at risk for death from the disease, especially in low-income countries. <\/p>\n
A 10-year-old who develops Type 1 diabetes in a low-income country has an average remaining life expectancy of just 13 years versus 61 in high-income countries, the researchers wrote.<\/p>\n
About 175 000 people worldwide died because of Type 1 diabetes in 2021, they said, and 63 to 70% of the deaths in those under age 25 occurred because the disease wasn\u2019t diagnosed.<\/p>\n
Better data could help that diagnosis rate rise, the researchers said.<\/p>\n
\u201cThere is an opportunity to save millions of lives in the coming decades,\u201d said Graham Ogle, a University of Sydney Medical School researcher and one of the study\u2019s co-authors. <\/p>\n
The numbers are a warning, he said, that without solutions \u2013 such as universal insulin access, a better standard of care and awareness of the symptoms of Type 1 diabetes \u2013the team\u2019s projection will become a reality.<\/p>\n
Read the latest issue of IOL Health digital magazine here.<\/p>\n