![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.ghanamma.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/02\/Putin-696x461.jpg\" "\\"Vladimir")
With his\u00a0incursion into Donetsk and Luhansk, Vladimir Putin has broken international law and destroyed the best negotiating track, the\u00a0Minsk agreement. That is clear. What is also clear is why he did it.<\/p>\n
An increasing number of politicians and media analysts claim Putin may be mentally unstable, or that he is isolated in a bubble of yes-men who don\u2019t warn him of dangers ahead. <\/p>\n
Many commentators say he is trying to restore the Soviet Union or recreate a Russian sphere of influence on his country\u2019s borders, and that this week\u2019s intrusion into eastern\u00a0Ukraine\u00a0is the first step towards an all-out attack on Kyiv to topple its government and even move against the Baltic states. <\/p>\n
None of these assertions is necessarily true.<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
The Russian president is a rational man with his own analysis of recent European history. Coming from a former Communist, his blaming of Lenin for giving excessive scope to local nationalism in drawing up the Soviet constitution is remarkable. Similarly, his criticism of the way national elites destroyed the Soviet Union in its final years is sharp.<\/p>\n
Does he want to turn the clock back? People often quote his statement \u201cthe demise of the Soviet Union was the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the century\u201d. But it bears pointing out that he enlarged on it later, saying: \u201cAnyone who doesn\u2019t regret the passing of the Soviet Union has no heart. <\/p>\n
Anyone who wants it restored has no brains.\u201d<\/p>\n
It is crucially important for those who might seek to end or ameliorate this crisis to first understand his mindset. What happened this week is that Putin lost his patience, and his temper. He is furious with the Ukraine government. He feels it repeatedly rejected the Minsk agreement, which would give the Ukrainian provinces of Donetsk and Luhansk substantial autonomy. <\/p>\n
He is angry with France and Germany, the co-signatories, and the United States, for not pressing Ukraine\u2019s president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, to implement them. He is equally angry with the Americans for not taking on board Russia\u2019s security concerns about\u00a0Nato\u2019s expansion\u00a0and the deployment of offensive missiles close to Russia\u2019s borders.<\/p>\n
To those who say Nato is entitled to invite any state to join, Putin argues that the \u201copen door\u201d policy is conditioned by a second principle, which Nato states have accepted: namely that the enhancement of a state\u2019s security should not be to the detriment of the security of other states (such as Russia). <\/p>\n
As recently as 2010 Barack Obama put his signature to the principle at a summit of the Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE). <\/p>\n
The summit\u2019s declaration includes a wonderfully idealistic ambition: \u201cWe recommit ourselves to the vision of a free, democratic, common and indivisible Euro-Atlantic and Eurasian security community stretching from Vancouver to Vladivostok\u201d. This echoes Mikhail Gorbachev\u2019s plea, when the cold war division of Europe ended, for\u00a0Russia\u00a0and other European states to live together in a \u201ccommon European home\u201d. <\/p>\n
We now suffer in the shadow of the thwarting of that dream.<\/p>\n
For Putin, Obama\u2019s signing of the OSCE statement is proof of the hypocrisy that goes back to earlier US presidents, who showed the dishonesty of Nato\u2019s \u201copen door\u201d policy by rejecting Russia\u2019s repeated feelers about joining the alliance. In his speech this week, the Russian leader said he had\u00a0asked Bill Clinton\u00a0about the possibility of membership but was fobbed off with the argument that Russia was too big. In 2000, during his first weeks as president, Putin was asked by David Frost on the BBC if it was possible Russia could join Nato.\u00a0He replied: \u201cI would not rule such a possibility out, if and when Russia\u2019s views are taken into account as those of an equal partner.\u201d<\/p>\n
George Robertson, a former Nato secretary general, recently\u00a0recalled meeting Putin\u00a0during his time at Nato: \u201cPutin said, \u2018When are you going to invite us to join Nato?\u2019 And [Robertson] said: \u2018Well, we don\u2019t invite people to join Nato, they apply to join Nato.\u2019\u201d<\/p>\n
From outside the alliance, Putin has seen it expand continually. He says he does not seek a revived Soviet Union but a buffer zone that would be, as he put it in a long essay last year, \u201cnot anti-Russia\u201d. John Kennedy wanted a similar cordon sanitaire when Khrushchev tried to put nuclear missiles in Cuba in 1962. Putin suggested on Tuesday that Ukraine should return to the strategy of neutrality that was in the Ukrainian constitution until the \u201ccoup\u201d that\u00a0toppled the Yanukovych government\u00a0in 2014, and brought pro-US nationalists to power. After all, a majority of Ukrainian MPs then believed that the country\u2019s fragile unity would be more secure if it was not pulled and pushed by rival pressures from Moscow and the west.<\/p>\n
Nato\u2019s stance over membership for Ukraine was what sparked Russia\u2019s takeover of Crimea in 2014. Putin feared the port of Sevastopol, home of Russia\u2019s Black Sea fleet, would soon belong to the Americans. The western narrative sees Crimea as the first use of force to change territorial borders in Europe since the second world war. Putin sees this as selective amnesia, forgetting that\u00a0Nato\u00a0bombed Serbia in 1999 to detach Kosovo and make it an independent state.<\/p>\n
Convinced that Nato will never reject Ukraine\u2019s membership, Putin has now taken his own steps to block it. By invading Donetsk and Luhansk, he has created a \u201cfrozen conflict\u201d, knowing the alliance cannot admit countries that don\u2019t control all their borders. Frozen conflicts already cripple Georgia and Moldova, which are also split by pro-Russian statelets. Now Ukraine joins the list. There is speculation about what will happen next but from his standpoint, it is not actually necessary to send troops further into the country. He has already taken what he needs.<\/p>\n
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- Jonathan Steele is a former Moscow correspondent for the Guardian<\/li>\n
- Join a panel of journalists, hosted by Michael Safi, for a livestreamed event on the Russia-Ukraine crisis. On Thursday 3 March, 8pm GMT | 9pm CET | 12pm PST | 3pm EST. Book tickets\u00a0here<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
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