{"id":666580,"date":"2019-07-29T06:36:54","date_gmt":"2019-07-29T06:36:54","guid":{"rendered":" <br><div>\n            <div class=\"td-post-featured-image\"><figure><img width=\"600\" height=\"399\" class=\"entry-thumb td-modal-image\" src=\"https:\/\/ghana-mma.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/07\/images-Copy-2.jpg\"   alt=\"Ken Ofori Atta Finance Minister\" title="},"modified":"2019-07-29T06:36:54","modified_gmt":"2019-07-29T06:36:54","slug":"terkper-shares-thoughts-on-2019-mid-year-review","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.ghanamma.com\/2019\/07\/29\/terkper-shares-thoughts-on-2019-mid-year-review\/","title":{"rendered":"Terkper shares thoughts on 2019 Mid-year review"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><\/p>\n<div>\n<div class=\"td-post-featured-image\">\n<figure><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"600\" height=\"399\" class=\"entry-thumb td-modal-image\" src=\"https:\/\/ghanamma.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/07\/images-Copy-2.jpg\"   alt=\"Ken Ofori Atta Finance Minister\" title=\"Ken Ofori Atta Finance Minister\"\/><figcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Ken Ofori Atta, Finance Minister <\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<p><strong>DON\u2019T RUSH TO PRAISE ALL OF AFRICA\u2019S \u201cPOPULAR\u201d BUT FISCALLY UNSUSTAINABLE PROGRAMS<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>Introduction<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u2013 Context is  2019 Mid-Year Review and the need to be realistic about the fiscal  prospects for the country\u2014based on past views in interviews and  articles.<\/p>\n<p>\u2013 A general call  on those who relate to Africa and its leaders not to ingratiate or  praise all \u201cpopular policies and initiatives\u201d, even if well-meaning,  that eventually lead to waste of fiscal and economic resources\u2014even  disaster.<\/p>\n<p>\u2013 The call goes<br \/>\nfor domestic leaders (e.g., chiefs, experts, clergy) and foreigners<br \/>\n(e.g., multilateral and bilateral institutions, development partners,<br \/>\nCSOs, professionals, etc).<\/p>\n<p><strong>Background<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u2013<br \/>\n Even the President now concedes (e.g., Oxford University lectures) that<br \/>\n the Free Senior High School (F-SHS) will take a lot of resources,<br \/>\nincluding:<\/p>\n<p>\u2013 diversion of petroleum revenues from the path of investment to consumption<\/p>\n<p>\u2013 including early hints of the use of \u201cHeritage Fund\u201d for F-SHS;<\/p>\n<p>\u2013 accumulation of arrears (e.g., pensions, roads, bailouts cost, etc) at May Day Speech;<\/p>\n<p>\u2013 higher levels of borrowing than the government had anticipated; and<\/p>\n<p>\u2013  despite three (3) (two (2) additional) oil fields with almost 3 times  the output since 2017 and recovery of prices that has tripled revenue  from petroleum.<\/p>\n<p>\u2013 It will involve serious long-term commitment\u2014merit only in leaving a legacy that future leaders will grapple with for decades.<\/p>\n<p>\u2013<br \/>\n Note that the Minister for Finance also highlighted the point but was<br \/>\nquickly shouted down by hawks within the Cabinet and the Party.<\/p>\n<p><strong>The \u201cunsustainable promise\u201d of F-SHS and other political promises<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>F-SHS appeared sustainable because\u2014<\/p>\n<p>Unlike<br \/>\n the original promise of a \u201cbig bang\u201d during elections (starting with<br \/>\nall students), SHS program was \u201cstaggered\u201d to start with only Year 1<br \/>\nstudents:<\/p>\n<p>\u2013<br \/>\n Years 2 and 3 students continued to pay fees\u2014while program remained<br \/>\n\u201cuntargeted\u201d, with even middle-class and affluent parents benefitting;<\/p>\n<p>\u2013<br \/>\n additional petroleum (oil and gas) revenues provided initial buffer<br \/>\nfrom 2017\u2014but these one-time inflows are against expanding expenditures<br \/>\n(F-SHS and other very expensive electoral promises such as 1D1F);<\/p>\n<p>\u2013 averting global and SSA recession and investments in energy sector<\/p>\n<p><strong>Ghana among few SSA states to avoid recession<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u2013 reverse rate of accumulation of national debt from positive to negative;<\/p>\n<p>\u2013 investing directly and supporting private-sector investments in TEN and Sankofa petroleum fields;<\/p>\n<p>\u2013<br \/>\n a substantial part of highly-rated fiscal consolidation came through<br \/>\nanother \u201cillusion\u201d\u2014budget \u201coffsets\u201d rather than a program of paying down<br \/>\n arrears;<\/p>\n<p>\u2013 bequeath of buffers\u2014previous administration bequeathed buffers:<\/p>\n<p>a. Sinking Fund: use to pay off outstanding balance of Ghana\u2019s first 2007 Sovereign Bond;<\/p>\n<p>b.<br \/>\n Ghana Infrastructure Investment Fund (GIIF): balanced used; VAT flow<br \/>\ndiverted to consumption; and no further allocations made to Fund;<\/p>\n<p>c.<br \/>\n Energy Sector Levy (ESLA): continuous flow of Ghc3 billion annually for<br \/>\n clearing arrears directed at providing relief for domestic banks;<\/p>\n<p>GDP \u201crebasing\u201d provided fiscal room and breadth, through<\/p>\n<p>\u2013<br \/>\n room for borrowing through GDP growth and \u201cillusionary\u201d lowering of<br \/>\nDebt\/GDP ratio that is being trumpeted as an achievement by the<br \/>\ngovernment; and<\/p>\n<p>\u2013 deferred the impact of increasing costs.<\/p>\n<p>\u2013  \u201ccapping\u201d\u2014has not provided needed fiscal relief, despite diverting  vital resources from vulnerable programs (i.e., education {GETFund} and  health {NHIL}; rural development {DACF}; and institutions {IGF}<\/p>\n<p><strong>Fiscal signs not favourable\u2014going into Mid-Year<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>\u2013 one-time cushions<\/strong>\u2014the \u201cbump\u201d in GDP growth from rebasing and additional crude\/gas production is <strong>\u201cone-time\u201d<\/strong> and will no longer cushion the worsening indicators like debt and budget deficit;<\/p>\n<p>\u2013 <strong>arrears owed to contractors and suppliers<\/strong>\u2014large<br \/>\n amounts owing to these vital economic players in various sectors,<br \/>\nincluding Presidential initiatives, are becoming apparent and are now<br \/>\nacknowledged by the Government\u2014<\/p>\n<p>\u2013 pensions\u2014concession at May Day celebrations by HE the President;<\/p>\n<p>\u2013 contractors and suppliers\u2014concessions by Roads and Finance ministries and \u201cdemonstrations\u201d by contractors;<\/p>\n<p>\u2013 salaries\u2014civil servants, nurses, and presidential initiative employees;<\/p>\n<p>\u2013 banking sector \u201cbail-out\u201d costs\u2014despite unprecedented funds from ESLA;<\/p>\n<p><strong>F-SHS\u2014no comprehensive disclosure yet to Parliament and the nation on true costs and inevitable arrears;<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u2013 increasing tax burden\u2014retention of temporary (\u201cnuisance\u201d) taxes &amp; introduction of new tax measures<\/p>\n<p>\u2013 retention of temporary (\u201cnuisance\u201d) taxes such as ESLA, special import levy (SIL), national fiscal stabilization levy (NFSL)<\/p>\n<p>\u2013<br \/>\n implicit.increase in ESLA levies:\u00a0 introduced at a period of low crude<br \/>\nprices low US$40s pbl so consumers are paying more now at current higher<br \/>\n price above US$60pbl;<\/p>\n<p><strong>Implicit ESLA levy: levy should have lasted 3-to-5 years but increased duration of ESLA Bond to 7-to-10 years;<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u2013<br \/>\n new tax measures\u2014increase in top rate of personal income tax (PIT); 2.5<br \/>\n percent increase in VAT rate (from 15% to 17.5%); luxury tax (user fee)<br \/>\n on vehicles; blocking VAT input tax credit (ITC);<\/p>\n<p>\u2013 discretionary change in basis (valuation and classification) for calculating import duties, VAT, fees\/charges; etc;<\/p>\n<p>\u2013 fiscal expansion\u2014the worsening fiscal gap may not taper or abate due to<\/p>\n<p>\u2013 subtle, not bold, new tax measures (e.g., luxury tax etc.)<\/p>\n<p>\u2013<br \/>\n continuing with expenditure programs (likely borrowing, not<br \/>\nreallocation to support the pace of president\u2019s electoral promises;<\/p>\n<p>\u2013<br \/>\n fiscal deficit and borrowing\u2014these indicators are deteriorating fast<br \/>\nand corrections for offsets in, and lowering of estimates, will make<br \/>\nthese indicators worse;borrowing to support the increasing fiscal<br \/>\ndeficit;<\/p>\n<p>\u2013 borrowing to finance belated infrastructure;<\/p>\n<p>\u2013 pledge of resources (e.g., royalties from minerals, bauxite deposits, etc.) to support the budget;<\/p>\n<p>\u2013<br \/>\n Sinking Fund\u2014despite three (3) oil fields, not using the SF to reduce<br \/>\ndebt (as was done from one (1) oil field for the NPPs first 2007<br \/>\nSovereign Bond;<\/p>\n<p>\u2013<br \/>\n Ghana Infrastructure Investment Fund (GIIF)\u2014diverting funds (i.e., VAT<br \/>\nand ABFA) for investment in infrastructure to consumption.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Wanted now\u2014cautious voices<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u201cMeasured\u201d approach is fiscally prudent\u2014being \u201cmeasured\u201d with<\/p>\n<p>\u2013<br \/>\n F-SHS [e.g., alternative \u201cprogressive\u201d approach] and other programs is<br \/>\nconsistent with fiscal prudence, as elicited in Public Financial<br \/>\nManagement Act [PFMA] and Budget Responsibility Act [BRA];<\/p>\n<p>\u2013 Benefits of being \u201crealistic\u201d\u2014refreshing to hear the voices of caution emerging<\/p>\n<p>\u2013<br \/>\n Domestic experts\u2014professors, experts, think tanks, and chairperson of<br \/>\nvital constitutional commission have sounded note of caution;<\/p>\n<p>\u2013<br \/>\n Opinion leaders\u2014it is important for other domestic opinion leaders to<br \/>\nfollow a realistic lead (e.g., clergy and chiefs must reflect condition<br \/>\nin religious and community schools);<\/p>\n<p>\u2013 IMF\/WB MD\u2014sounded note of caution, not ringing endorsement, on government expenditure and debt programs; nonetheless<\/p>\n<p>\u2013 roll-back of tax measures (e.g., VAT on non-core financial sector and commercial real estate) in Program;<\/p>\n<p>\u2013<br \/>\n failing to acknowledge Ghana\u2019s avoidance of recession; permitting<br \/>\nfiscal expansion; and not being critical of \u201coffsets\u201d that<br \/>\nunderestimated arrears and gave impression of accelerated fiscal<br \/>\nexpansion;<\/p>\n<p>\u2013<br \/>\n Development Partners (DPs)\u2014countries that may be capable of free<br \/>\n(education) social programs choose to make them \u201ctargeted\u201d (i.e.,<br \/>\ntuition-free programs, as Ghana had) and adopting alternative options<br \/>\n(e.g., concessional student loans);<\/p>\n<p>\u00a0\u2013 Preference for using fiscal support for investments, not consumption, is global<\/p>\n<p>\u2013<br \/>\n in advanced countries (e.g., quantitative easing): invest in<br \/>\ninfrastructure to support private sector and rural\/urban development,<br \/>\nnot place scarce fiscal resources in consumption;<\/p>\n<p>\u2013 MIC states\u2014approach adopted by middle-income countries (MICs) such as Emirates and Asian economies;<\/p>\n<p>\u2013<br \/>\n Developing countries\u2014Angola and South Africa now showing a preference<br \/>\nfor infrastructure development through Sovereign Wealth Funds (SWFs) as<br \/>\nin Ghana\u2019s PRMA.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Conclusion<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u2013<br \/>\n Current fiscal environment is different from late 2014-16 when many SSA<br \/>\n countries were headed into recession, due to global financial crisis,<br \/>\nfall in crude oil and other commodity prices, and domestic pressures<br \/>\nsuch as non-supply of gas from Nigeria<\/p>\n<p>\u2013 Now, three (1) oilfields, not one (1); rebound in commodity prices, and, therefore, enhanced budget buffers.<\/p>\n<p>\u2013 Problem is unbridled expenditure due to electoral promises; non-conventional approach to managing arrears; and borrowing<\/p>\n<p>\u2013  Time for realistic review and appraisal as well as domestic and  international experts toning down their praise or holding back their  reservations on Africa\u2019s politically-motivated \u201cpopular\u201d but  unsustainable electoral and fiscal promises.<\/p>\n<p>Source: Ghana|Seth E. Terkper<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Ken Ofori Atta, Finance Minister DON\u2019T RUSH TO PRAISE ALL OF AFRICA\u2019S \u201cPOPULAR\u201d BUT FISCALLY UNSUSTAINABLE PROGRAMS Introduction \u2013 Context is 2019 Mid-Year Review and the need to be realistic about the fiscal prospects for the country\u2014based on past views in interviews and articles. \u2013 A general call on those who relate to Africa and [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":655762,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[6],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-666580","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-business"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.8 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Terkper shares thoughts on 2019 Mid-year review - Ghanamma.com<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.ghanamma.com\/2019\/07\/29\/terkper-shares-thoughts-on-2019-mid-year-review\/\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:title\" content=\"Terkper shares thoughts on 2019 Mid-year review - 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