Politics of Tuesday, 20 January 2015
Source: Graphic Online
A former Ashanti Region Deputy Minister, Mr Samuel Yaw Adusei, says the dynamics of general elections in the fourth republic with regard to presidential elections favour President Mahama’s pairing with his vice to lead the National Democratic Congress (NDC) for victory in 2016.
He has, therefore, reiterated the need for the NDC hierarchy to streamline things that would cement the partnership of President Mahama and Mr. Paa Kwesi-Amissah-Arthur to enable the party to win the 2016 election hands down.
Making references to previous elections, Mr. Adusei noted, “John Agyekum Kufuor’s votes appreciated in 2004 when he stood unopposed in their primaries and maintained Aliu Mahama as his running mate. It can be inferred that when a party in power maintains the winning team, they are likely to retain power in the next election, just as when a party in opposition loses the next election if it maintains a losing team.”
Giving historical references to buttress his points during an interview with the Daily Graphic, Mr Adusei said the Fourth Republic and its flag bearer -running mate dynamics had had much impact on the outcome of elections with respect to presidential elections.
“In this regard, Nana Addo has aggravated his misfortunes of losing the 2016 general election by retaining Dr. Bawumia as his running mate for the third time. This is because no flag bearer in opposition has been able to win power by maintaining his running mate even twice,” he explained.
Explaining further, he said in 1992 , the NPP in opposition elected Prof. Adu Boahen as their Presidential candidate with Roland Alhassan as running mate and only had 30 per cent in the general election, while Jerry John Rawlings, who nominated Kow Nkensen Arkaah as running-mate, won the general election by 58 per cent .
“In 1996, the NPP elected John Agyekum Kufuor as their flag bearer with Kow Nkensen Arkaah as running mate, and they had 39 per cent in the 1996 general election, and that was a significant increase in percentage from that of 1992 while Jerry John Rawlings dropped in percentage of votes to 57 per cent.
In 1998, NPP elected John Agyekum Kufuor for the second time, and when he selected Alhaji Aliu Mahama as running mate, he increased the percentage of votes from 39 per cent to 48.8 per cent in the 2000 general election.
The NDC elected Prof. J.E.A Mills, who was the vice president at that time as their flag bearer, who selected Mr. Martin Amidu as his running mate. Prof. J.E.A Mills got 44.45 per cent in the general election, meaning NDC dropped from 57 per cent to 44.45 per cent in terms of percentage votes, and subsequently lost the general election after the second round,” he noted.
According to Mr. Adusei, the trend continued when NDC elected Prof. Mills as the flag bearer and he selected Alhaji Mumuni for the 2004 election, while President Kufuor, who was unopposed in the NPP’s presidential primaries in 2003, maintained his Vice-President, Alhaji Aliu Mahama. He said, “While President Kufuor won the 2004 general election by 52.45 per cent, an increase in percentage votes from 48.8 per cent in 2000, Prof. J.E.A Mills increased his votes marginally from 44.12 per cent in 2000 to 44.64 per cent.”
He said when the NPP again elected Nana Addo as their flag bearer and he maintained Dr. Bawumia as running mate, he dropped from 49.13 per cent to 47.81 per cent during the 2012 general election, while President Mahama won it one touch.
He said it was for these reasons that the National Executive Committee (NEC) of the NDC should use its influence to maintain the Mahama/Paa Kwesi Amissah Arthur ticket to secure victory in 2016.