{"id":447383,"date":"2011-06-24T18:43:07","date_gmt":"2011-06-24T18:43:07","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.ghanamma.net\/2011\/06\/24\/southern-africa-can-wait-rajoelina-out\/"},"modified":"2011-06-24T18:43:07","modified_gmt":"2011-06-24T18:43:07","slug":"southern-africa-can-wait-rajoelina-out","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.ghanamma.com\/2011\/06\/24\/southern-africa-can-wait-rajoelina-out\/","title":{"rendered":"Southern Africa Can Wait Rajoelina Out"},"content":{"rendered":"<div readability=\"72.7325056433\">\n<hr class=\"thin clear\" \/>\n<hr class=\"thin clear\" \/>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.southernafricareport.com\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Southern Africa Report<\/a> (Johannesburg)<\/p>\n<p>23 June 2011<\/p>\n<hr class=\"thin clear\" \/>\n<p>analysis<\/p>\n<p>SADC has little to gain by reacting strongly to Malagasy President <strong>Andry Rajoelina<\/strong>\u2019s defiant rejection of its insistence that he allow his exiled opponents back home.<\/p>\n<p>It can afford to wait patiently while pressure mounts on Rajoelina from elsewhere, satisfied that he will have to make the first move \u2013 as he did after ousting President <strong>Marc Ravalomanana<\/strong> with military backing in 2009.<\/p>\n<p>For more than a year, he effectively ignored SADC. But the UN and the EU had followed the African Union (AU) and SADC in refusing to recognise his government, thus depriving him of much of the donor aid that provided more than half his predecessor\u2019s national budget.<\/p>\n<p>With his membership of the UN suspended, the World Bank no longer does business with Madagascar, cutting Rajoelina off from any meaningful line of international credit. He recognised that SADC, rather than the Francophone community, offered a route back into global society and in late 2010 began seriously engaging the SADC appointed facilitator, former Mozambican President <strong>Joachim Chissano<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p>With Chissano he has coupled an obvious talent for brinkmanship with an appreciation that SADC believes it has little direct leverage over him: Madagascar lives in relative isolation from the mainland, and its economy \u2013 unlike Zimbabwe\u2019s \u2013 does little business with SADC.<\/p>\n<p>It has been clear for some months that Chissano has been unable to manoeuvre his way around SADC\u2019s central difference with Rajoelina: SADC wants free and fair elections; Rajoelina and his security chiefs want elections quickly and without the inconvenience of the political formations supporting his three immediate \u2013 elected \u2013 predecessors, Mouvance Ravalomanana, Mouvance (Didier) Ratsiraka and Mouvance (Albert) Zafy.<\/p>\n<p>On 12 June SADC cut through the diplomatic niceties and insisted that \u201cMalagasy people in exile for political reasons \u2026 be allowed to return to the country unconditionally including Mr Marc Ravalomanana\u201d. Ravalomanana was singled out because, a week earlier at a pre-summit positioning meeting in Botswana, he made it clear that SADC would be on shaky legal ground endorsing an election in which an unelected incumbent had effectively selected his opponents. When Rajoelina objected at the 11-12 June 2011 Sandton summit that Ravalomanana had been convicted in abstentia of treason, the assembled presidents bluntly told him to arrange an amnesty or a pardon.<\/p>\n<p>Rajoelina flew home, \u201cmet with his allies\u201d, and had his security chiefs announce they would arrest Ravalomanana should he return.<\/p>\n<p>In doing this he has over-estimated both SADC\u2019s willingness to compromise further \u2013 diplomats in Pretoria acknowledge chronic \u201cMadagascar-fatigue\u201d \u2013 and the Francophone community\u2019s willingness to publicly champion his cause.<\/p>\n<p>While Paris continues to provide some aid and French diplomats have advised Rajoelina on limiting the effects of isolation (see <strong>SAR Vol 29 No 14<\/strong>), France\u2019s recent African exploits in the Ivory Coast and Libya have left it sensitive to the idea of openly endorsing defiance of a formally constituted regional authority. Within hours of the public refusal to allow Ravalomanana back, Euro-MPs were advocating the imposition of mandatory EU and UN Security Council sanctions on Madagascar. In the polarised Security Council climate following Nato\u2019s abuse of the Libyan no-fly zone resolution this would require strong AU endorsement to carry, but even the possibility would hurt. This is also true of solo EU action.<\/p>\n<p>For its part, SADC can afford to wait Rajoelina out: Chissano and chief negotiator <strong>Leonardo Simao<\/strong> have been asked by pro-Rajoelina minority parties for further discussions in Antananarivo and can be expected there soon. But their principals have spoken, so the pair can no longer compromise in the face of Rajoelina\u2019s brinkmanship. With Europe preparing to turn up the heat on Rajoelina, SADC will be content to wait until Rajoelina is ready to concede.<\/p>\n<p>On Madagascar meanwhile, the security forces\u2019 support for Rajoelina has never been unconditional. The generals do not want Ravalomanana back, but Rajoelina has offered them little since taking power other than tight budgets and international isolation. At some stage they will begin considering an alternative.<\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n<fieldset>\n<legend align=\"center\"><strong>More News on allAfrica.com<\/strong><\/legend>\n<\/fieldset>\n<p>AllAfrica &#8211; All the Time<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<\/div>\n<\/p>\n<p>More:<br \/>\n<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"http:\/\/allafrica.com\/stories\/201106241333.html\" title=\"Southern Africa Can Wait Rajoelina Out\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Southern Africa Can Wait Rajoelina Out<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p> Southern Africa Report (Johannesburg) 23 June 2011 analysis SADC has little to gain by reacting strongly to Malagasy President Andry Rajoelina \u2019s defiant rejection of its insistence that he allow his exiled opponents back home. It can afford to wait patiently while pressure mounts on Rajoelina from elsewhere, satisfied that he will have to make the first move \u2013 as he did after ousting President Marc Ravalomanana with military backing in 2009<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":0,"featured_media":398680,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[6],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-447383","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-local-news"},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.1 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Southern Africa Can Wait Rajoelina Out - Ghanamma.com<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.ghanamma.com\/2011\/06\/24\/southern-africa-can-wait-rajoelina-out\/\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:title\" content=\"Southern Africa Can Wait Rajoelina Out - Ghanamma.com\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:description\" content=\"Southern Africa Report (Johannesburg) 23 June 2011 analysis SADC has little to gain by reacting strongly to Malagasy President Andry Rajoelina \u2019s defiant rejection of its insistence that he allow his exiled opponents back home. It can afford to wait patiently while pressure mounts on Rajoelina from elsewhere, satisfied that he will have to make the first move \u2013 as he did after ousting President Marc Ravalomanana with military backing in 2009\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@ghanamma\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@ghanamma\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"3 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.ghanamma.com\\\/2011\\\/06\\\/24\\\/southern-africa-can-wait-rajoelina-out\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.ghanamma.com\\\/2011\\\/06\\\/24\\\/southern-africa-can-wait-rajoelina-out\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"\",\"@id\":\"\"},\"headline\":\"Southern Africa Can Wait Rajoelina Out\",\"datePublished\":\"2011-06-24T18:43:07+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.ghanamma.com\\\/2011\\\/06\\\/24\\\/southern-africa-can-wait-rajoelina-out\\\/\"},\"wordCount\":683,\"commentCount\":0,\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.ghanamma.com\\\/2011\\\/06\\\/24\\\/southern-africa-can-wait-rajoelina-out\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"\",\"articleSection\":[\"Local News\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/www.ghanamma.com\\\/2011\\\/06\\\/24\\\/southern-africa-can-wait-rajoelina-out\\\/#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.ghanamma.com\\\/2011\\\/06\\\/24\\\/southern-africa-can-wait-rajoelina-out\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.ghanamma.com\\\/2011\\\/06\\\/24\\\/southern-africa-can-wait-rajoelina-out\\\/\",\"name\":\"Southern Africa Can Wait Rajoelina Out - Ghanamma.com\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.ghanamma.com\\\/2011\\\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.ghanamma.com\\\/2011\\\/06\\\/24\\\/southern-africa-can-wait-rajoelina-out\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.ghanamma.com\\\/2011\\\/06\\\/24\\\/southern-africa-can-wait-rajoelina-out\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"\",\"datePublished\":\"2011-06-24T18:43:07+00:00\",\"author\":{\"@id\":\"\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/www.ghanamma.com\\\/2011\\\/06\\\/24\\\/southern-africa-can-wait-rajoelina-out\\\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.ghanamma.com\\\/2011\\\/06\\\/24\\\/southern-africa-can-wait-rajoelina-out\\\/#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"\",\"contentUrl\":\"\"},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.ghanamma.com\\\/2011\\\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.ghanamma.com\\\/2011\\\/\",\"name\":\"Ghanamma.com\",\"description\":\"News In Ghana - Latest Ghana News Headlines\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.ghanamma.com\\\/2011\\\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":{\"@type\":\"PropertyValueSpecification\",\"valueRequired\":true,\"valueName\":\"search_term_string\"}}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"Southern Africa Can Wait Rajoelina Out - Ghanamma.com","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/www.ghanamma.com\/2011\/06\/24\/southern-africa-can-wait-rajoelina-out\/","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_title":"Southern Africa Can Wait Rajoelina Out - Ghanamma.com","twitter_description":"Southern Africa Report (Johannesburg) 23 June 2011 analysis SADC has little to gain by reacting strongly to Malagasy President Andry Rajoelina \u2019s defiant rejection of its insistence that he allow his exiled opponents back home. It can afford to wait patiently while pressure mounts on Rajoelina from elsewhere, satisfied that he will have to make the first move \u2013 as he did after ousting President Marc Ravalomanana with military backing in 2009","twitter_creator":"@ghanamma","twitter_site":"@ghanamma","twitter_misc":{"Est. reading time":"3 minutes"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"Article","@id":"https:\/\/www.ghanamma.com\/2011\/06\/24\/southern-africa-can-wait-rajoelina-out\/#article","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.ghanamma.com\/2011\/06\/24\/southern-africa-can-wait-rajoelina-out\/"},"author":{"name":"","@id":""},"headline":"Southern Africa Can Wait Rajoelina Out","datePublished":"2011-06-24T18:43:07+00:00","mainEntityOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.ghanamma.com\/2011\/06\/24\/southern-africa-can-wait-rajoelina-out\/"},"wordCount":683,"commentCount":0,"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.ghanamma.com\/2011\/06\/24\/southern-africa-can-wait-rajoelina-out\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"","articleSection":["Local News"],"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"CommentAction","name":"Comment","target":["https:\/\/www.ghanamma.com\/2011\/06\/24\/southern-africa-can-wait-rajoelina-out\/#respond"]}]},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/www.ghanamma.com\/2011\/06\/24\/southern-africa-can-wait-rajoelina-out\/","url":"https:\/\/www.ghanamma.com\/2011\/06\/24\/southern-africa-can-wait-rajoelina-out\/","name":"Southern Africa Can Wait Rajoelina Out - Ghanamma.com","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.ghanamma.com\/2011\/#website"},"primaryImageOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.ghanamma.com\/2011\/06\/24\/southern-africa-can-wait-rajoelina-out\/#primaryimage"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.ghanamma.com\/2011\/06\/24\/southern-africa-can-wait-rajoelina-out\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"","datePublished":"2011-06-24T18:43:07+00:00","author":{"@id":""},"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/www.ghanamma.com\/2011\/06\/24\/southern-africa-can-wait-rajoelina-out\/"]}]},{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/www.ghanamma.com\/2011\/06\/24\/southern-africa-can-wait-rajoelina-out\/#primaryimage","url":"","contentUrl":""},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/www.ghanamma.com\/2011\/#website","url":"https:\/\/www.ghanamma.com\/2011\/","name":"Ghanamma.com","description":"News In Ghana - Latest Ghana News Headlines","potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/www.ghanamma.com\/2011\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":{"@type":"PropertyValueSpecification","valueRequired":true,"valueName":"search_term_string"}}],"inLanguage":"en-US"}]}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.ghanamma.com\/2011\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/447383","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.ghanamma.com\/2011\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.ghanamma.com\/2011\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.ghanamma.com\/2011\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=447383"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.ghanamma.com\/2011\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/447383\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.ghanamma.com\/2011\/wp-json\/"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.ghanamma.com\/2011\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=447383"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.ghanamma.com\/2011\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=447383"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.ghanamma.com\/2011\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=447383"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}