{"id":427842,"date":"2011-05-21T10:17:46","date_gmt":"2011-05-21T10:17:46","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.ghanamma.net\/2011\/05\/21\/the-transition-settles-into-drifting-conflict\/"},"modified":"2011-05-21T10:17:46","modified_gmt":"2011-05-21T10:17:46","slug":"the-transition-settles-into-drifting-conflict","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.ghanamma.com\/2011\/05\/21\/the-transition-settles-into-drifting-conflict\/","title":{"rendered":"The Transition Settles Into Drifting Conflict"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Garowe Online<\/a> (Garowe)<\/p>\n

Dr. Michael A. Weinstein<\/p>\n

19 May 2011<\/p>\n

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opinion<\/p>\n

From the last week of April through mid-May, the “transition” of Somalia’s Transitional Federal Institutions (T.F.I.s) to a permanent constitutional order, which is supposed to take place by August, 2011 according to an international mandate, ground to a halt as the Transitional Federal Government (T.F.G.) and the Transitional Federal Parliament (T.F.P.) settled into a bitter power struggle over conflicting conceptions of how long and under what conditions their terms should be extended beyond August, and the Western “donor”-powers, which finance the T.F.I.s and attempt to exert influence on them through the United Nations, observed the fight from the sidelines after having failed in mid-April to control the “transition” and bring it to a conclusion.<\/p>\n

It has now become starkly clear that nothing even barely approaching a permanent political arrangement for Somalia will be in place by August; another month has been lost and the “donor”-powers’ desire to at least begin a transitional process becomes less and less likely to be fulfilled. The unwillingness or inability of the “donor”-powers to take the initiative in a decisive way has allowed the T.F.I.s to fall out among themselves and to indulge their addiction to internecine conflict over preferment. Whether or not the present pattern will continue depends upon the “donor”-powers: Will they allow the T.F.I.s or part of them to exist beyond August? Will they pull the plug on the T.F.I.s? Will they attempt a serious takeover of the transition? At present, the “donor”-powers appear to have accepted a short-term and probably medium-term acquiescence in drift. That judgment is indicated by the “donor”-powers’ failure to take any substantive action at a meeting of the U.N. Security Council on Somalia on May 12.<\/p>\n

Drifting Conflict<\/strong><\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

John Nyaga\/IRIN<\/a><\/p>\n

Recently arrived Somali refugees at Ifo camp, Dadaab, northeastern Kenya.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

The power struggle between the T.F.I.s became entrenched on April 24, when the T.F.G.’s cabinet announced that it was postponing elections for the speaker of parliament and the country’s president that were slated to take place in August. The cabinet’s rationale for its action was that elections were “impossible” due to insecurity. Its move was a direct challenge to the T.F.P., which was contemplating a presidential election in parliament in August, and to the “donor”-powers, which were insisting on elections in August for both the speaker and president. From then on the timing of elections became the major issue of Somalia’s politics, at least within the circle of conflict composed by the T.F.I.s and the “donor”-powers.<\/p>\n

Reaction to the cabinet’s announcement was immediate by the T.F.P. with M.P. Ismail Ahmed countering that the government only had the right to propose measures and that,therefore, its decision to postpone elections was “illegal.” The fight was on.<\/p>\n

On April 25, parliamentary opposition to the T.F.G.’s decision to defer elections intensified and spilled over to the dispute within the T.F.I.s between the earlier actions of the T.F.P. to extend its term for three years and the T.F.G. to extend the terms of both of the T.F.I.s for one year. Awad Ahmed Ashara, chairman of the T.F.P.’s information committee, argued that the T.F.G.’s cabinet had failed to inform parliament of the justification for its term-extension decision, which it should have done according to law. The faction in the T.F.P. loyal to its speaker, Sharif Hassan Sh. Adan, met at the speaker’s house to form a response to the T.F.G.’s move to postpone elections, with Ashara affirming the T.F.P.’s three-year term extension as “unchangeable,” and reiterating its resolve to hold elections in August. On April 27, the Mareeg website reported that the Sharif Hassan faction had met again, this time at Mogadishu’s Salafi Hotel, to underscore its opposition to the postponement of the presidential election. Meanwhile, the website reported, Sharif Hassan had begun an intensive campaign among M.P.s to win support for an August presidential election in parliament and for his bid to win the post. On April 28, Shabelle Media Network reported that a group of M.P.s, led by former deputy speaker, Mohamed Omar Dalha, had begun efforts to mediate between the T.FP and T.F.G. on the election-timing dispute. On April 29, the T.F.G. announced that mediation was underway as the pro-speaker parliamentary faction and the pro-T.F.G. faction of M.P.s held separate meetings.<\/p>\n

Threatened by the momentum building toward an August presidential election in parliament and Sharif Hassan’s positioning himself to win it, the T.F.G.’s president, Sh. Sharif Sh. Ahmed, who seeks to retain his post, went on the attack on April 30, charging that the Presidential Election Parliamentary Committee, which had been appointed by Sharif Hassan to set up the August election, was illegal on the grounds that “a potential presidential candidate [Sharif Hassan] cannot appoint members of a committee that is supposed to monitor and regulate presidential elections, this is totally illegal and illogical.” On the same day, Sh. Sharif met with the T.F.G.’s cabinet and parliamentary supporters, explaining that he was not opposed to elections, but that they could only be held after “consultations with stakeholders” on resolving the dispute over conflicting term-extension decisions by the T.F.I.s and “ending the transition.” Sh. Sharif added that decisions on term extension were the responsibility of the government and that parliament had not consulted with the government when the former had extended its term.<\/p>\n

With the last week of April having been taken up with the T.F.G. and the T.F.P. (pro-speaker faction) maneuvering themselves into a stand-off over the timing of elections, May began with the third actor in the “transition,” the “donor”-powers\/U.N., weighing in. On May 1, the European Union, which plays the greatest part in bankrolling the T.F.I.s, issued a statement that future support of the transitional institutions should be contingent on their making progress on “reform” and “the delivery of transitional tasks,” such as holding elections and drafting a permanent constitution. Expressing its “regret” over the T.F.P.’s term extension, the E.U.’s unprecedented threat to pull the plug on the T.F.I.s reflected the “donor”-powers’ frustration with the halt to momentum towards the completion of the “transition.” The E.U.’s statement was unclear about whether or not it would stop supporting the T.F.I.s if their present officeholders failed to step down in August, and a closed source in the Horn of Africa reported that the statement was intended to frighten the T.F.I.s rather than being a serious threat – the “donor”-powers did not want to face a political vacuum in which there would not be even a nominal “representative” of “Somalia.”<\/p>\n

In response to the E.U.’s challenge, Sharif Hassan chaired a meeting of supportive M.P.s on May 4 to determine their position. The Raxanreeb website reported that the faction was satisfied with the E.U.’s statement, with M.P. Ibrahim Hassan Bule, a member of the T.F.P.’s electoral committee, saying at a press briefing that the pro-speaker group was in step with the E.U., making clear that it was preparing for an August presidential election that would be held in parliament, obviating the security concerns attending a public election.<\/p>\n

Also on May 4, U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon issued a report to the U.N. Security Council, in which he warned that the disagreement among the T.F.I.s over term extension was “distracting” them from performing the “transitional tasks,” most importantly advancing the constitution-making process. Ban did not follow the E.U. in threatening the withdrawal of aid if the T.F.I.s did not comply with “donor”-power desires, reflecting his need to balance interests of the “donor”-powers and regional African states, which were moving to support the T.F.G.’s one-year term extension for the T.F.I.s.<\/p>\n

With a U.N.S.C. meeting on Somalia slated to take place in a week, on May 11 the T.F.P. acted quickly to put is plan for August elections in motion, with Bule announcing that the electoral committee had prepared documents and “electoral cards” for the presidential poll. The T.F.P. went on the attack against the T.F.G., with M.P. Ali Mahamoud Farah (Seko), speaking for parliament’s justice committee, warning Sudan and the United Arab Emirates not to give any aid funds to the T.F.G., a delegation of which led by Sh. Sharif was visiting those countries. The T.F.G., said Seko, was “destabilizing” Somalia by “interfering with elections.”<\/p>\n

With the pro-speaker faction moving to implement its electoral program, the pro-T.F.G. parliamentary faction countered their opponents’ initiative. Speaking for the group on May 6, M.P. Abdikadir Shido accused the electoral committee and Sharif Hassan of “violating procedures” by deciding to hold a presidential election before an election for speaker, when the elections were supposed to proceed in the reverse order according to law. Shido said that the pro-T.F.G. faction would present a motion blocking the electoral committee’s actions at the next session of the T.F.P.<\/p>\n

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