{"id":373320,"date":"2011-04-07T23:00:00","date_gmt":"2011-04-07T23:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.ghanamma.net\/2011\/04\/07\/will-today%e2%80%99s-election-set-trend-for-other-polls\/"},"modified":"2011-04-07T23:00:00","modified_gmt":"2011-04-07T23:00:00","slug":"will-todays-election-set-trend-for-other-polls","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.ghanamma.com\/2011\/04\/07\/will-todays-election-set-trend-for-other-polls\/","title":{"rendered":"Will today\u2019s election set trend for other polls?"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

ABOUT 73.5 million voters are expected to vote today in the National Assembly elections that will usher in a new House of Representatives and Senate that will be inaugurated on June 6. The puzzle begging for resolution is whether the first in the series of elections will create a bandwagon effect in many states or voting pattern will follow the same trend. Will the outcome today\u2019s elections shape voter behaviour and predict the result of the presidential poll holding in eight day\u2019s time?<\/span><\/p>\n

On the weighing scale are the six main political parties-Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN), Congress for Progressive Change (CPC), All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP)of , Labour Party (LP), and All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA)-and numerous paper weight platforms scrambling for election grants from the electoral commission. The big and smaller parties are entering the critical moment of decision with apprehension.<\/span><\/p>\n

Analysts contend that the poll is a direct competition for political control between PDP and opposition platforms itching to halt the 12 years of the ruling party. It appears the parties outside federal government are determined to carry out an electoral onslaught, although they remain utterly disunited. There is the pervading feeling that the outcome of the National Assembly elections may make them to realise their mistakes and compel a change of strategy.<\/span><\/p>\n

Three senators will be elected from each of the 36 states of the federation and one from the Federal Capital Territory (FCT). This means that 109 flag bearers will make it to the Upper Chamber out of 890 candidates when the wheat is separated from the chaff.<\/span><\/p>\n

Across the 360 federal constituencies, politicians vying for the House of Representatives will also be subjected to scrutiny in 120,000 polling booths nationwide. Although the poll will produce federal parliamentarians, it is significant that the winners are endorsed locally by constituents far remote from the distant central government.<\/span><\/p>\n

The election time-table is a wide departure from earlier experience. At play during the consideration for the ordering of the polls was the survival instinct of the National Assembly members who feared that governors who dislike their faces may mobilise voters against them in the states, if the governorship election is trailed by National Assembly polls.<\/span><\/p>\n

If the outcome of the poll confirms the prediction and expectations of the parties in the contests, then, the likelihood exists that they would want to consolidate on the progress recorded. But between now and next week, parties may surprise the polity with collaboration proposals, wheeling and dealings, based on new understanding.<\/span><\/p>\n

Changes in permutations may be contemplated and this is not new in history. One week, observers agree, is enough to change previous calculations. It is instructive to note that during the 1979 elections in Kaduna State, the National Party of Nigeria (NPN) won the majority seats in the House of Assembly.<\/span><\/p>\n

However, the state parliamentary election was not a predictor of the governorship poll that took place exactly a week after. Other parties teamed up with the Peoples Redemption Party (PRP) to elect Alhaji Balarabe Musa as governor.<\/span><\/p>\n

In the old Gongola State, after the House of Assembly election, no party out of the five parties-NPN, Unity Party of Nigeria (UPN), Nigeria Peoples Party (NPP), Peoples Redemption Party (PRP) and Great Nigeria Peoples Party (GNPP). The progressive parties teamed up to support the GNPP governorship candidate, Alhaji Abubakar Barde, who won the poll.<\/span><\/p>\n

Predictably, smaller parties that would crash out after the close of poll today would fortify their alliances with parties that appear to be having an edge and ask their governorship and Assembly aspirants to step down for victorious parties.<\/span><\/p>\n

If the election is free and fear, there is no way a single party can emerge a clear winner in today\u2019s poll. If the threat of the PDP to capture the majority of seats in the National Assembly crumbles, main opposition parties may be strengthened to forge a common front to combat PDP\u2019s Goodluck Jonathan at the presidential election.<\/span><\/p>\n

Many voters are more emotionally attached to the governorship and House of Assembly elections than the presidential contest. The National Assembly members are seen as ambassadors to the legislative houses at the centre and their impact is seldom felt at the local areas. Therefore, despite the fact that the party that will emerge winner at the National Assembly elections may want to wipe up sentiments, it may not produce the desired result because local voters are more fascinated by governorship and House of Assembly elections.<\/span><\/p>\n

In the Southwest, for example, consistency may remain the watchword. There is the tendency of voting along the same pattern in Ekiti, Osun, Lagos, parts of Oyo and Ogun States where the popularity of ACN is soaring, from the beginning of the general elections to the end.<\/span><\/p>\n

At the moment, in the presidential election, the main candidates are President Goodluck Jonathan of the PDP, General Muhammadu Buhari of the CPC, Mallam Nuhu Ribadu of the ACN and Mallam Ibrahim Shekarau of the ANPP. The campaign teams, The Nation learnt are watching developments closely. The strategists are studying changing scenario by the minute to decide what may be done. While the “opposition” parties were unable to strike any form of alliance prior to the onset of elections, the National Assembly polls may dictate and force on them a form of coalition ahead of the presidential poll.<\/span><\/p>\n

The result of this week\u2019s elections is thus crucial. If between them, the CPC, CAN and ANPP have a good showing, eating into the majority that the ruling party enjoys, thus showing the possibility of defeating it in the presidential election, feelers from the camp suggest a resumption of the alliance talks. By then the strength of the allies would have been revealed by the returns.<\/span><\/p>\n

On the other hand, if the PDP dominance is established once again, the race could be over ahead of the other elections. Bandwagon effect has always been real in Nigerian elections.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/p>\n

See original article:
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ABOUT 73.5 million voters are expected to vote today in the National Assembly elections that will usher in a new House of Representatives and Senate that will be inaugurated on June 6. The puzzle begging for resolution is whether the first in the series of elections will create a bandwagon effect in many states or voting pattern will follow the same trend. Will the outcome today\u2019s elections shape voter behaviour and predict the result of the presidential poll holding in eight day\u2019s time? <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":0,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-373320","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard"],"yoast_head":"\nWill today\u2019s election set trend for other polls? - Ghanamma.com<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.ghanamma.com\/2011\/04\/07\/will-todays-election-set-trend-for-other-polls\/\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:title\" content=\"Will today\u2019s election set trend for other polls? - Ghanamma.com\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:description\" content=\"ABOUT 73.5 million voters are expected to vote today in the National Assembly elections that will usher in a new House of Representatives and Senate that will be inaugurated on June 6. 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