{"id":350065,"date":"2011-03-30T15:54:31","date_gmt":"2011-03-30T15:54:31","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.ghanamma.net\/2011\/03\/30\/ceo-overconfidence-alert\/"},"modified":"2011-03-30T15:54:31","modified_gmt":"2011-03-30T15:54:31","slug":"ceo-overconfidence-alert","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.ghanamma.com\/2011\/03\/30\/ceo-overconfidence-alert\/","title":{"rendered":"CEO overconfidence alert"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

Are America’s optimistic CEOs getting a little carried away?<\/strong><\/p>\n

The Business Roundtable’s CEO outlook index hit its highest level on record<\/a> in the first quarter, the trade group said Wednesday. The 9-year-old index, measuring expected sales, capital spending and hiring trends, hit 113 \u2013 a full 7% above than the previous high water mark<\/a>.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

You would feel confident too<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

A survey of 142 chief executives showed 92% expect sales to rise in the next six months, and 52% expect to hire workers in the United States. They expect the U.S. economy to expand at a 2.9% clip this year, up from a previous 2.5%.<\/p>\n

Execs “see momentum in the economy over the next six months, with increased demand fueling greater investment and job creation,” said the group’s leader, Verizon (VZ<\/a>) chief Ivan Seidenberg.<\/p>\n

Of course,\u00a0“increased momentum” is\u00a0not saying much, as lukewarm as the economy has been. But that CEOs should be highly confident now is no surprise. While U.S. wages have been flat for a decade, CEO pay continues to soar. And\u00a0as weak as this recovery has been, many of the gains have accrued to big companies. Corporate profits are at a record (see chart, above), for instance.<\/p>\n

At the same time, consumers are feeling markedly less confident<\/a>, as a result of rising food and energy prices and the scarcity of good jobs. Consider the 40-point gap between the CEOs’ sales and hiring expectations.<\/p>\n

The disparity between CEO and consumer confidence may or may not show that big U.S. companies are decoupling from Main Street. But here is a good sign the CEOs are decoupling from reality: not one executive surveyed in the latest round expects his or her company’s sales to fall in the next six months.<\/p>\n

Even in the bubbly feel-good days of 2004-2007, every survey had at least one or two execs who admitted to lower sales ahead. But not this time. Score one for irrational exuberance in the catbird seat.<\/p>\n

Also on Fortune.com<\/strong>:<\/p>\n

Follow me on Twitter @ColinCBarr<\/a>.<\/p>\n

<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/div>\n<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

Visit link:
\nCEO overconfidence alert<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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