{"id":326229,"date":"2011-03-21T09:33:50","date_gmt":"2011-03-21T09:33:50","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.ghanamma.net\/2011\/03\/21\/cote-divoire-will-a-unity-govt-resolve-nations-crisis\/"},"modified":"2011-03-21T09:33:50","modified_gmt":"2011-03-21T09:33:50","slug":"cote-divoire-will-a-unity-govt-resolve-nations-crisis","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.ghanamma.com\/2011\/03\/21\/cote-divoire-will-a-unity-govt-resolve-nations-crisis\/","title":{"rendered":"Cote d’Ivoire: Will A Unity Govt Resolve Nation’s Crisis?"},"content":{"rendered":"
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\n\"allAfrica.com\"<\/a>\n<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

Charlayne Hunter-Gault<\/p>\n

21 March 2011<\/p>\n

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analysis<\/p>\n

C\u00f4te d\u2019Ivoire is on the brink of civil war. Its president since 2000, Laurent Gbagbo, is refusing to cede power to Allasane Ouattara, the putative winner of elections last November, and is using the instruments of state to crush his supporters.<\/p>\n

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As clashes between forces loyal to each of the parties intensify, the African Union has attempted to resolve the impasse by proposing that the rivals share power in a Government of National Unity \u2013 popularly referred to as a GNU. Such governments have been formed in a number of countries across the continent to resolve deadlocks between incumbents and popular challengers.<\/p>\n

It may be an academic exercise to look at GNUs on the continent, since Gbagbo has flatly refused the option. But, as some African analysts point out, leaders such as Kenya\u2019s Mwai Kibaki, initially refused to enter them but after some time relented and, although Kenya\u2019s alliance is still fraught with dissension, at least so far the political tensions have not deteriorated into violence.<\/p>\n

So what is the record of GNUs in Africa? Can they play a useful role in easing transitions from deeply-entrenched regimes to newly-elected leaders, or are they simply a mechanism which enables dictators to cling to power when they have lost their mandate?<\/p>\n

It depends on how you measure it and who is doing the measuring. David Zounmenou of the Institute for Security Studies in Pretoria argues that most of what have been described as GNUs have actually been \u201cstrategies to move out of conflict,\u201d as in the Democratic Republic of Congo, Liberia, Sudan, Mozambique and Angola. And he argues that the manner of their adoption has given them a negative connotation. \u201cIf the legitimacy of an election is contested,\u201d he says, \u201cyou cannot talk about democracy.\u201d<\/p>\n

South African political analyst Adam Habib argues that the \u201cgreat success story\u201d of GNUs was South Africa, where there was no civil war in the classic sense, and where in 1994 Nelson Mandela\u2019s African National Congress overwhelmingly won an undisputed election and the National Party, the rulers of the minority white regime, joined the government because, as Habib put it: \u201cThey felt they had a stake\u2014namely 20 or more seats in the National Assembly and one or more Cabinet portfolios.\u201d<\/p>\n

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Mandela and the ANC also invited other opposition parties into the government. Although two years later, the National Party \u201cchanged its mind\u201d and left government (though other opposition parties remained), Habib says that the arrangement facilitated a breakthrough that avoided violence and ensured a smooth transition.<\/p>\n

Habib argues that the issue was and remains \u201cunder what conditions do you temper justice?\u201d In his view, the South African experience demonstrates that \u201cif you can temper justice for peace, then it\u2019s worth it. But you can only temper justice if you make progress.\u201d<\/p>\n

But Steven Friedman, the director of the Johannesburg-based Center for the Study for Democracy, disagrees with Habib on the South African experience and GNUs in general. He insists that \u201cwhat power sharing tends to be is second chances for defeated minorities,\u201d adding, \u201cIt doesn\u2019t work.\u201d<\/p>\n

Habib argues that what was critical in the change of government in South Africa was that no sooner had the Mandela-led government come to power than it took control of the armed forces, a critical variable in any power-sharing deal. Former combatants fighting against the white regime were integrated into the armed forces, with minimal conflict. In C\u00f4te d\u2019Ivoire, Gbagbo retains control of the military, buttressing his intransigence.<\/p>\n

The same is true in Zimbabwe, where after losing an election in 2008, Robert Mugabe eventually agreed to a GNU but retained control of what South African analyst Aishee Kajee calls \u201cthe machinery of the repressive state\u201d\u2014the military, the police and the security apparatus. While Prime Minister Morgan Tsvangirai\u2019s Movement for Democratic Change secured the finance ministry, there are raging battles between the finance minister, Tendai Biti, and Mugabe\u2019s Zanu-PF party over civil servants\u2019 salaries and millions of missing dollars from diamond sales.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

Kajee points to other failures of the Zimbabwe GNU, including a refusal to honor agreements over government positions \u2014 in particular Mugabe\u2019s refusal to swear in the deputy agriculture minister, who has been arrested and otherwise harassed and has fled to South Africa. Kajee says the apparatus of government is \u201chamstrung\u201d because of differences between the two sides. In the last few days, Tsvangirai has declared the GNU \u201cdysfunctional\u201d and called for a \u201cdivorce\u201d following the detention of a senior member of his party.<\/p>\n

In Kenya, President Kibaki and Prime Minister Raila Odinga formed what Kenyans call \u201cthe grand coalition\u201d after widespread violence followed the disputed 2007 election. Kibaki initially refused to accept a GNU, but finally agreed after the sustained intervention of a team led by former United Nations Secretary-General Kofi Annan.<\/p>\n

However, deep divisions remain, making it an uneasy coalition plagued by power struggles and disagreements over issues as such Odinga\u2019s powers and most recently the venue for the trial of six leaders charged by the International Criminal Court with crimes arising from the post-election violence.<\/p>\n

Last year, analyst Rose Mwebeza of the Nairobi office of the Institute for Security Studies argued that the Kenyan GNU \u201cis about to unravel,\u201d and that its problems \u201cfurther highlight the inadequacies of power sharing agreements and the challenges they pose in their implementation on the African continent.\u201d<\/p>\n

She went on to ask: \u201cDo power sharing arrangements such as the one for the Kenyan coalition government really serve any meaningful purpose beyond creating positions of power to placate and reward warring political opponents? Can power sharing arrangements really lead to the creation of a function[ing] government that can deliver peace and development for the people?\u201d<\/p>\n

Answering, she argued: \u201cThe lessons from the Kenyan experience would suggest otherwise and point to the grim reality that what Kenya has, like all other African governments in similar power-sharing arrangements, is a fare that can unravel at any time at the cost and peril of ordinary people.\u201d<\/p>\n

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Kajee agrees, citing Zimbabwe: \u201cThis type of non-working Government of National Unity sets a very unfortunate precedent elsewhere on the continent, where leaders and governments and administrations that have been in power long beyond their \u2018sell-by date\u2019 continue to believe they can retain power because they feel their colleagues in the multilateral system\u2014the African Union\u2014will continue to let them stay in power.\u201d<\/p>\n

David Zounmenou says that if an administration\u2019s legitimacy is contested, \u201cyou cannot talk about democracy. You cannot compromise that aspect of the democratic process.\u201d Yet he believes the establishment of GNUs shows that \u201cAfricans have realized you respect the will of the people.\u201d He singles out the president of Mali, Amadou Toumani Tour\u00e9, who has instituted a government position for the parliamentary opposition leader to help him or her learn how to govern.<\/p>\n

If Gbagbo does in time agree to a GNU in C\u00f4te d\u2019Ivoire, given the history of GNUs on the continent, will it resolve anything?<\/p>\n

John Stremlau, vice president for peace programs at The Carter Center, based in Atlanta, Georgia in the United States, believes GNUs \u201ccan be very helpful in the consolidation of peace agreements following civil strife.\u201d And he says he expects to see a GNU emerge in C\u00f4te d\u2019Ivoire.<\/p>\n

But he agrees with other analysts in saying: \u201cThe key issue, of course, is: who is in charge? If the fellow who received the majority of votes in an election is deemed credible, with the resulting count in this case validated by the UN, then fine.\u201d<\/p>\n

He says there is as long history of political compromises producing less than ideal democratic outcomes, which nevertheless prove enduring and legitimate. \u201cThe problem comes when the GNUs become a way for still powerful incumbents to frustrate the popular will, as in Zimbabwe.\u201d<\/p>\n

Stremlau goes on to point to the founding fathers of the United States, who came up with a unifying formula, which he recalls was \u201cextremely cruel\u201d to black people \u2013 who were deemed to be only three-fifths of a person \u2013 and rewarded small members of the federation with privileges standing contrary to the principle of one person, one vote \u2013 the standard hallmark of democracy. Decades went by before the civil rights movement of the 1960s led to laws that righted that wrong.<\/p>\n

Echoing the ISS\u2019s Zounmenou, Stremlau says: \u201cSovereignty resides in the people, not the leader. If that principle is upheld, then a GNU can be a bridge to sustainable peace and democratic development.\u201d<\/p>\n

Statement of disclosure:<\/strong> Charlayne Hunter-Gault is a member of the board of trustees of the Carter Center, which employs Stremlau.<\/em><\/p>\n

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