his time last year a match was lit by a fruit vendor in Tunis, which triggered uprisings throughout the region. Countries big, Egypt, and small, Tunisia, have witnessed wholesale change and the toppling of governments.<\/p>\n
But at the one year mark, those on the ground here in the region are asking a simple question: Are we better off today than we were before the Arab Spring? People talk of a \u201cThe New Middle East\u201d with a mixture of both optimism and despair, from Bahrain to Yemen.<\/p>\n
Clearly the voice of the people has been heard and resonates on the streets of Cairo, for example, but unemployment is at a decade long high in Egypt, tourism is down officially by a quarter from a year ago and the Cairo Stock Exchange is the world\u2019s worst performer of 2011.<\/p>\n
\u201cThis country is literally and figuratively burning and we are approaching the threshold which it will become very hard to rebuild trust in the system,\u201d says Mohamad Al-Ississ, a professor of economics at the American University of Cairo.<\/p>\n
Al-Ississ is not optimistic the region\u2019s most populous country can escape \u201cfinancial Armageddon,\u201d with the erosion of trust in the military. The window of time between now and presidential elections scheduled for late June is considered critical.<\/p>\n
Eugene Rogan, of St. Antony\u2019s college at Oxford University, echoes that view. He says the military in Egypt went from \u201cheroes to villains of the revolution in 2011.\u201d But the author of \u201cThe Arabs: A History\u201d believes 2012 will offer a great deal of insight on what Islamic-based parties will offer as they move from being the target of repression to the mainstream.<\/p>\n
\u201cThey are making common cause with the liberal and secular parties to try and frame a new order in which Islamic values will sit side-by-side with secular values and a very much business friendly, attract back tourists sort of agenda,\u201d says Rogan. Those who do not deliver the economic goods to the people of the Arab Spring he says \u201care not speaking the language of the day.\u201d<\/p>\n
In Tunisia, new Prime Minister Hamadi Jebali raised some eyebrows at home and in the international business community when he talked of \u201cliving the sixth righteous Caliphate\u201d that will govern future development. Jebali comes from Ennahda, Tunisia\u2019s most prominent Islamist party.<\/p>\n
Tunisia\u2019s respected Governor of the Central Bank, Mustapha Kamel Nabli, said in an interview that the new government\u2019s policies and proposals to date are \u201cprivate sector and market friendly\u201d and that \u201cpronouncements up until now are in that direction as well.\u201d<\/p>\n
The economy, he says, could grow by nearly 4% after only treading water during the year of the Arab Spring. It is not the domestic economy that will hold back projections, he believes, but the inability of neighboring Libya to recover and the lack of tourism visitors from Europe, which is struggling with its debt problems.<\/p>\n
The government has less than four months worth of cash reserves but he hopes the corner will be turned in the next two quarters, with tourists and foreign investors putting Tunisia back on their priority list.<\/p>\n
Egypt is in an even worse position for cash reserves, and is paying record amounts when it taps the bond market. The country garnered just under $50 billion in foreign direct investment in the five years leading up to the Arab Spring, but reforms took two and a half decades to get started under the Mubarak government. As Professor Al-Ississ points out, 40% of the population still live in grinding poverty.<\/p>\n
Their frustration with the lack of shared opportunity and the level of mistrust with the military has led to the third interim government in less than a year.<\/p>\n
Settling the unrest in Egypt, Al-Ississ suggests, is key for the region. The Military Council needs to get in sync with the Egyptian people before the one year anniversary of the uprising in Tahrir Square.<\/p>\n
\u201cThis is the moment where we go forward or we go back to ground zero,\u201d he said. <\/p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
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