The ‘Transition’ is Deferred

Garowe Online (Garowe)

Dr. Michael A. Weinstein

11 June 2011

By mid-May, all momentum to effect a “transition” of Somalia’s internationally-recognized Transitional Federal Institutions (T.F.I.s) to a permanent constitutional order by August 20, 2011, when their international mandate was supposed to expire, had been dissipated in a controversy between the Transitional Federal Government (T.F.G.) and the Transitional Federal Parliament (T.F.P.) over how long the terms of the T.F.I.s should be extended beyond August.

Museveni and Somali leaders

As the conflict between the T.F.G. and T.F.P. went on without any results, the Western “donor”-powers (United States, European Union, and Western European powers), which finance the T.F.I.s and wish for the “transition” to occur as quickly as possible, made a vague gesture on May 12, through the United Nations Security Council (U.N.S.C.), towards exerting pressure on the T.F.I.s to end their deadlock.

In a non-binding “Presidential Statement,” the U.N.S.C. expressed “concern” over the conflict among the T.F.I.s, urged them to refrain from further “unilateral actions” (such as extending their terms), and threatened that their mandates would be terminated if elections for the T.F.G.’s president and the T.F.P.’s speaker were not held.

The weak presidential statement fell far short of what the U.N. secretary-general’s envoy to Somalia, Augustine Mahiga, had desired. In his speech at the U.N.S.C. meeting, Mahiga had asked the Council to “weigh in” on the term-extension debate, which it had clearly failed to do. In light of the U.N.S.C’s indecisiveness, Mahiga was left in the thankless position of trying to enforce the U.N.S.C.’s demand for August elections against the T.F.P.’s plan to hold elections for T.F.G. president in August in parliament, and the T.F.G.’s plan to defer elections for the T.F.I.s for one year. In a statement following the U.N.S.C. meeting, Mahiga observed that the “crux of the problem” was that the T.F.G. and T.F.P. “did not want to change.” He said that he would attempt to persuade external stakeholders to agree on “benchmarks” for performing “transitional tasks,” such as holding elections and drafting a permanent constitution, to which they would hold the T.F.I.s accountable. From Mahiga’s viewpoint, simply threatening the T.F.G. and T.F.P. with a mandate cut-off was insufficient to motivate them to resolve their term-extension/election-timing dispute.

With the “transition” in a state of drifting conflict, attention of all the actors shifted to a “consultative conference” called by the T.F.G. for June 12 in Mogadishu, at which all the players would be present to discuss the “transition.” Under the shadow of the U.N.S.C.’s threat to end the mandates of the T.F.I.s on August 20 if they did not solve their rifts and hold elections, the coming Mogadishu conference, which the U.N. had agreed to sponsor and the T.F.G. insisted that it organize and chair, spurred a controversy among the players over which of them would control the conference, who would attend it, and what its agenda would be. As the conference approached, the drifting conflict heated up, with the players still in disarray and firming up their respective positions. The issues of term extension and the holding of elections were deflected to the new issue of how to hold the June conference.

Sh. Sharif and Sharif Hassan Fail to Agree

Under the threat of a mandate cut-off from the U.N.S.C. and the impending and disputed June conference, the two contending actors in the T.F.I. disputes – the president, Sh Sharif Sh. Ahmad, and the parliamentary speaker, Sharif Hassan Sh. Adan – held a series of meetings from May 17 to May 22, in which they attempted to form a united front against the “donor”-powers/U.N. at the Mogadishu conference.

Shabelle Media reported that the discussions began inauspiciously, with Sh. Sharif accusing Sharif Hassan of fomenting an “uprising” in parliament for August presidential elections, and Sharif Hassan responding that Sh. Sharif should bring any “legitimate views” on postponement of elections to parliament. The conversation ended with no common ground having been reached. Sh. Sharif was reported by Shabelle to be eager to have another meeting.

RBC Radio reported that the president and speaker met again on May 19, and that a source in the presidency said that they were preparing a joint press statement. Any prospect that the two Sharifs had formed a defensive alliance was dispelled when they met again on May 20 and failed to agree on election timing and procedures. They had not budged an inch from their fixed positions.

Parliamentary secretary, M.P. Omar Islow, held a press conference, saying that the talks had “ended without any result.” Sh. Sharif, said Islow, pushed for his one-year term-extension plan, “and that was really rebuffed by the speaker.” Horn Cable TV reported that Islow asserted that no negotiations could change parliament’s decision to hold August elections.

The failure of the two Sharifs to find any common ground jeopardized the Mogadishu conference and made it an occasion for conflict. Would other stakeholders, internal and external, accept the T.F.G. organizing and chairing the conference? Would the U.N.S.C., through Mahiga, use its sponsorship of the conference to try to take it over and impose its plan of having elections for president and speaker in August, which would remove the two Sharifs and substitute (they hoped) more pliant leaders? Would some way be found of getting the T.F.G. to hand organization of the conference to a committee representing all significant domestic factions, so attendance would be assured?

The U.N.S.C. “Weighs In”

Faced with factional divisions in the T.F.I.s and anxious uncertainty among all the players, the U.N.S.C. traveled to Nairobi on May 25 to address the domestic and external stakeholders, and to reinforce its presidential statement, which had thus far had no practical effect.

In briefing the press on the U.N.S.C’s visit, Mahiga was sketchy on the Council’s agenda, saying that security issues would be discussed, as well as resolving the rifts in the T.F.I.s. Mahiga stressed that this was “the first time the entire membership of the U.N. Security Council” would meet in Nairobi “in order to address the situation in Somalia.” He said that the visit was “different from previous meetings,” because the U.N.S.C. was now “very keen to keep abreast of the latest political and military developments.”

After hearing “Somalia’s” various factions replay their fixed positions, the U.N.S.C. stated its position through British U.N. ambassador, Mark Lyall Grant, who concentrated on the Mogadishu conference, saying that the meeting should result in a schedule for elections and their timing, a “roadmap” for the transition, and “benchmarks” (urged by Mahiga) for progress on “transitional tasks.” The Council, said Grant, demanded an end to conflicts over term extension among the T.F.I.s, and a focus on the “key” transitional tasks of outreach, reconciliation, governance, financial responsibility, and drafting a constitution. Grant warned the T.F.I.s to resolve their differences or lose the “backing” of the U.N.S.C. Most importantly, Grant directed the T.F.I.’s leaders to “engage immediately and constructively” with Mahiga, who “has the full support of the U.N. Secreatry-General and the whole of the Security Council in the consultative process he is facilitating.” He said that Mahiga would report to the U.N.S.C. on the Mogadishu conference and would be its convener, appearing to oppose the T.F.G. plans to dominate it.

In summarizing the essence of the Council’s position, Mahiga said that the T.F.I.s were expected to end their disputes immediately and to hold “presidential elections” before August, appearing to side with parliament in the election dispute. The Council had not, however, accompanied its demands with a statement of the specific consequences that the T.F.I.s would suffer if they did not reach agreement.

Response to the U.N.S.C.’s (re-)statement of its position was immediate. The T.F.G. put its own interpretation, favorable to its position, on the U.N.S.C.’s message, with its information ministry spokesman, Abdifatah Abdinor, saying that the T.F.G. welcomed the U.N.S.C.’s statements; the Council had backed the June conference. “We achieved our goals,” said Abdinor. T.F.G. prime minister, Mohamed Farmajo stressed that the U.N.’s role in the conference was “only to facilitate.”

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