Zoning formula: More headaches for Africa’s largest party

The contest between the North-Central and the North-East on the Senate Presidency is a test for the ruling Peoples Democratic Party as it comes up with a new zoning formula this month, NIYI ODEBODE writes

Results of the general elections must have shocked enemies of the ruling Peoples Democratic Party, who have composed a dirge for the party that prides itself as the largest in Africa. The party that was contending with many knotty issues before the polls, had proved to be a cat with nine lives. At the last count, the PDP has won governorship elections in 25 states and it is also leading other parties in the National Assembly.

Before the elections, many had thought that the influence of the PDP would be whittled down because of battles it was fighting on different fronts. After the death of President Umaru Yar’Adua in May, 2010, the internal cohesion of the party was threatened. Even before his death, the foundation of the PDP had been shaken by a succession dispute. With the late President’s incapacitation by a terminal illness, pericarditis, some members of the party wanted his deputy, Dr. Goodluck Jonathan, to take over. But those who were loyal to Yar’Adua insisted that the status quo should be maintained in spite of his ill-health. Even the party chairman then, Chief Vincent Ogbulafor, tacitly supported the pro-Yar’Adua group. Despite campaigns by organisations such as the Save Nigeria Group, the pro-Yar’Adua group maintained its stand. But the National Assembly dominated by the PDP later saved the country from the crisis that would have consumed it. With its motion hinged on the “doctrine of necessity,” the National Assembly paved the way for Jonathan to assume office as the acting President. He eventually became President on May 6, 2010 after the death of Yar’Adua the previous day.

Hardly had he assumed office than campaigns for the 2011 elections begun with the North laying claim to the Presidency. After about three months in office, Jonathan started getting signals from prominent Northern politicians, who told him in a plain language that he should not contemplate contesting the presidency in 2011. To checkmate the President, politicians including a former military dictator, Gen. Ibrahim Babangida (retd.); former vice-president Abubakar Atiku and an ex-finance minister, Mallam Adamu Ciroma, formed the Northern Political Leaders’ Forum, which consistently insisted on the zoning of the presidency to the North.

When it became clear that it could not stop Jonathan from contesting the presidential poll, the group went a step further by picking Abubakar as its consensus candidate. On many occasions, Ciroma and other members of the group prophesied the death of the PDP if it failed to pick a northern candidate. For instance in an interview in March, Ciroma said the PDP “will reap the consequences” if it fielded Jonathan as its presidential candidate. Those who knew how powerful the NPLF members were did not consider Ciroma’s threat an empty one. Such people were actually waiting for the PDP’s death.

But contrary to the expectation of the NPLF, Jonathan trounced the former vice-president at the January 13 PDP presidential primaries. The President even received overwhelming support from northern delegates at the primaries.

While the NPLF was insisting on a northern candidate, many governors in the region remained constant in their backing of Jonathan. But with the growing influence of the Congress for Progressive Change presidential candidate, Gen. Muhammadu Buhari (retd.), there were doubts about the ability of the PDP to win the presidential poll. Two main opposition parties, the CPC and the Action Congress of Nigeria were banking on a runoff. The NPLF compounded the fear of the PDP when it met Buhari in order to shore up support for him.

Although the CPC presidential candidate won overwhelmingly in the North-West and North-East, he could not prevent the PDP from getting 25 per cent of votes in Sokoto and Zamfara.The PDP even defeated Buhari in Adamawa State, which was thought to be the CPC’s candidate’s stronghold. The ruling party has survived the opposition hurdle.

But the battle is not over yet for the umbrella party as it is now faced with another obstacle: the zoning formula. Currently, the South-South is in the Presidency; North-West produced the vice-president; the Senate President is from the North-Central and South-West, (Speaker of the House of Representatives). There are indications that the party will alter the zoning arrangement in the next two weeks.

During campaigns, some chieftains of the PDP urged the North-Central to vote for the party, promising that the Senate presidency would not be taken away from the zone. In spite of this promise, the South-West was also eyeing the position. But with the woeful performance of the PDP in the South-West, the Senate Presidency is now beyond the reach of the zone.

Until a week ago, the North-Central seemed set to clinch the Senate Presidency. But the North-East has joined the race for the position. The North-Central politicians have hinged their demand on the electoral performance of the PDP in the zone. The current Senate President, David Mark, said the North-Central would retain the position. Mark is from the North-Central. The Director General of the David Mark Campaign Organisation, Mr. Abba Moro, said the Senate President was better placed to lead the National Assembly having played a critical role in stabilising the polity.

But the North-Central is insisting that the current reality demands a review of the zoning formula. Senators-elect from the zone were unequivocal in their call for the Senate presidency at their meeting in Abuja on Saturday.

They said that zoning of the Senate Presidency to the North-Central was against the “expediency of the moment, and the corporate goals of the North to be part of the new re-alignment of power.”

The group stated, “Insisting on the North-Central will reinforce the fears of the core North, which needs to be pacified, since it lost out in the power equation, in the aftermath of the death of Musa Yar’Adua.

“The power arrangement in the country since the unfortunate demise of Yar’Adua has created deep dissatisfaction in the core North, resulting in the spontaneous post presidential poll violence in the zone.”

It was gathered that key politicians in the North-Central reasoned that since the executive is headed by a Christian from the South-South, the upper chamber of the National Assembly should be headed by a Muslim.

“There is possibility that the number four citizen, Speaker of the House of Representatives, will be a Christian from the South-West or the South-East. To pacify the core North, the Senate Presidency should be zoned to the North-East,” a PDP chieftain in the zone argued.

Besides the senate presidency, the South-West and the South-East are also slugging it out for the House of Representatives speakership. For the South-West, the massive support given to Jonathan during the presidential poll is enough justification for the zoning of the speakership position to it.

But the South-East says that failure to zone either the Senate Presidency or House of Representatives Speakership to it will amount to marginalisation. It adds that with the massive support given to the PDP, it does not deserve anything less than the House of Representatives speakership.

In the next two weeks, zoning of key positions will be another test for the PDP and its decision will show whether it will win another battle.