Plateau Rep elections and shape of things to come

The PDP last week won five out of the six federal constituencies contested for in Plateau State defeating the major opposition Labour Party. Our correspondent examines the issues behind the successes and failures in the election, suggesting that fresh issues may reshape the outcome for subsequent polls.

With the senate elections and two House of Reps seats deferred by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) to the 26th of April 2011 in Plateau State, only six out of the eight House of Representative elections were held last week.

This conservatively represents about 65 percent of the voting population in Plateau State, but as the results started coming in, the effect was almost as good as the entire elections being concluded.

Members and supporters of political parties that lost wore long faces, while those that won pumped their hands in jubilation.

As the first in the series of elections in the current dispensation, there was no doubt that parties had wanted to use the elections to test their strength.

The PDP won five out of the six Rep seats contested for namely, Barkin Ladi/Riyom, Jos South/Jos East, Mikang/Shendam/Qua’an-Pan, Mangu/Bokkos and Langtang North/Langtang South. It lost only Wase federal constituency to the ACN candidate, Idris Ahmed.

With the release of the results, the simple deduction has been that Plateau has proven once again to be a PDP State and that no other party is on ground.

Chairman of the PDP in Plateau State, Dr. Haruna Dabin, in a press briefing, supported this assertion saying for recording almost 80 percent success during the last polls, it is clear that PDP is the party accepted by the people in Plateau state. He went ahead to challenge the other parties in the state to show their records to buttress whatever claim they made that they were on ground in Plateau.

He said the results of that Saturday elections have shown that the PDP is set to win the other elections in the state adding that any vote cast outside that of the PDP in the subsequent elections would be a waste as most voters are bound to thumbprint for the PDP.

However, Labour publicity secretary Slyvanus Namang punctured the claim. He said what appears like victory for the PDP in the state appears only so when details of the results and how they came to be are not taken into consideration.

He said in most of the areas where the LP is said to have lost, it was a mere concession worked out to accommodate certain interests while other unforeseen factors might have cropped up to sway the votes and not because the PDP is more popular or more accepted by the people.

Namang added that if Labour can within seven months measure neck to neck with the PDP in its very first election since becoming the major opposition party in the state, then it promises to do more in the remaining elections.

Other independent observers however say that the showing of the LP at the House of Rep elections does not exude confidence, more so when Pauline Tallen, the gubernatorial candidate, lost in her constituency.

Whether the last elections can be used to foray into the future is however another matter.

While some maintain that the last election is reflective of what would happen in the remaining elections, others say the circumstances that guided the last one are different and the result may not have a direct bearing on the outcome of the remaining elections.

The PDP in Plateau believes its victory is by no means an accident but one that is bound to be replicated in the other elections, Labour Party  and other opposition stalwarts are holding contrary opinions.

Due to this many reasons have been given for the success of the PDP in the last election while enumerating certain factors, circumstances and peculiarities that made the others to lose which they say may not accompany the other elections.

It is said that in the case of Mikang/Shendam/Qua’an-Pan federal constituency, the removal of the name of the ACN candidate, George Daika by INEC on the eve of the election, gave the PDP candidate, Innocent Tirsel, an edge as LP supporters were said to have had an understanding with the ACN members on that matter only for Daika’s name to be dropped at the last minute which gave Mikang votes and part of Shendam to the PDP.

Our correspondent confirmed that Daika’s name was removed by INEC on the list it released on the eve of the elections.

The same scenario it is said, may have played out in the Bokos/Mangu constituency where the LP candidate, James Ayuba, hails from the same local government with the LP senatorial candidate, Chief Joshua Dariye.

In this instance, Daily Trust learnt that Mangu had bargained to take the Rep seat so that it can support the LP when it comes to the senatorial elections which is a bigger affair.

For Jos South/Jos East, it is said that while the people of Jos East may not be favourably disposed towards voting PDP, they were compelled to do so since the PDP candidate is their son, while for Lagtang North/ Langtang South, it was argued that the incumbent, Beni Lar, who is candidate of the PDP was voted out of respect for her father, former chairman of the PDP, Chief Solomon Lar. Those who believe this said it might not be so in other elections where no blood relation of Lar is contesting.

The aggregate of these opinions is that when the senatorial and gubernatorial elections come, the people would vote differently as other factors would come into play.

In the senate elections for the southern zone, where Senator John Shagaya of the LP, Jeremiah Useni of the DPP and Victor Lar of the PDP would be locking horns, it is obvious that some other factors would be added into the mix.

Useni for instance, has his personality and record of philanthropic activities going for him in almost all the local governments in the zone. While the PDP might be a popular party, the reputation of Useni in the zone precedes the party. Useni had also shown in previous elections that when his interest is at stake, he can make a difference. In the case of Shagaya, it is said that he also affected many of the people in the area and is likely to put up a good showing.

In the central zone, the personality of Dariye looms larger than the party. In his case, it can be said that his personality makes the difference as he has been instrumental to the victory of others in the past. He is known to have been responsible for the election of the incumbent Senator, Satty Gogwim, against former deputy senate president, Ibrahim Mantu, in what many said was the hottest contest in the history of the constituency. Now that the battle is his, many wager that he may not spare any punches to ensure he wins the seat for the LP.

The PDP candidate in the zone, Dr, Dauda Gowon, though a good material, cannot claim popularity in the magnitude of Dariye’s. So even here, there seem to be an indication that victory of the PDP in the Rep elections may not reflect what may transpire at the senate.

In the northern zone where Lumumba Adeh of the LP and Col. John David Dungs as well as Pam Jack would be contesting against Gyang Dalyop Dantong, there are also new factors to contend with.

In the Rep elections, the PDP candidates for Jos South/ Jos East and Riyom/ Barkin Ladi had less popular candidates to contend with but same cannot be said of the senate elections where Dungs, Adeh and Perry have also met the same level of acceptance with Dantong. Another thing is that the Rep elections excluded the voters of Jos North/Bassa federal constituency that make up more than 50 percent of the voting population of Plateau North. The results obtained from the two federal constituencies last week therefore cannot be relied upon.

The gubernatorial elections appear even more so as most of the places where elections did not hold last Saturday like Jos North/ Bassa, Pankshin/Kanke/Kanam are not easy to predict as a block, more so as the charisma of the candidates vary in significant degrees. Hence, the Rep elections, though symptomatic in some respects, did not succeed in painting a picture of what may transpire at the senatorial and gubernatorial elections.

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