2011 Presidency: Who does the cap fit?

OLUSOLA FABIYI examines the chances of major candidates as Nigerians elect their president on Saturday

Gradually, the D-day is creeping in. And in few days, Nigerians will troop to the polling booths to elect their next president, who will paddle the ship of the nation for the next four years. Forget those pretending to be aspiring for the office, Nigerians, and even the members of the international community are aware that the race is majorly between President Goodluck Jonathan of the Peoples Democratic Party; Gen. Muhammadu Buhari, who will fly the flag of the Congress for Progressive Change; Mallam Nuhu Ribadu of the Action Congress of Nigeria and probably Mallam Ibrahim Shekarau of the All Nigerian Peoples Party.

Among these contestants, Jonathan stands out as the preferred candidate, judging by a lot of grounds. Apart from being a seating President, his political party, still has the largest following. It is the biggest political party in the country, which cut across the six geo-political zones, except the South-West. If the results of the last parliamentary elections were anything to go by, the 2011 Jonathan presidency project could be said to be a done deal. However, before the reality of his party’s winning machine was made public, snippets of results from the elections were not so favourable to Jonathan. Headlines like “Sambo defeated in polling unit,” “ACN disgraces Obasanjo in own ward,” must have sent palpable fears down the spines of his followers. Reasons for the fears were understandable. Alhaji Namadi Sambo is the current vice-president and the running mate to Jonathan, while former president Olusegun Obasanjo is the number one promoter of the Jonathan Presidency. Both were, therefore, not only considered important to deliver the votes, they were also expected to rally round other voters in their constituency for the Jonathan Presidency Project.

Thus, some heavyweights of the PDP had resolved that the President’s electoral reform was about to consume him. They also thought that his preaching of one-man-one-vote concept would not only end his own dream but also reform the party out of power. But like a wounded lion, the party gradually recovered from the shock as it garnered votes from other polling stations. It, therefore, swept the elections in many states to the consternation of many. Though the PDP suffered heavy defeats in some unexpected states like Oyo, Ogun, Katsina and Osun in the South-West, it nevertheless shocked many bookmakers when it went ahead to win in states like Kano, Borno and Sokoto. Therefore, like it happened in 1999 till now, the party is retaining its majority in the National Assembly. Though the number of its members in both chambers has been reduced due to the victory of opposition parties in its hitherto strongholds, the PDP still maintains its lead in both chambers. Because of this, analysts say if the result of last Saturday could be used to determine the outcome of the presidential election, then Jonathan and his deputy are home and dry.

However, since election is not mathematics, a new set of factors may puncture such conjecture. One of such is the unending negotiation between the ACN and the CPC, aimed at producing one presidential candidate to confront Jonathan on Saturday. The two parties, which had met but were unable to reach an accord in the past, became emboldened by their performance in the National Assembly elections, thinking that if they could work together, there were possibilities that they could stop the rampaging PDP. But the PDP had since dismissed the renewed alliance talks between the CPC and the ACN, saying they will not be able to stop Jonathan from wining on Saturday. The party said the performance of the opposition parties at the National Assembly elections showed that they were not in any position to stop its (PDP) candidate from winning. The Acting National Chairman of the party, Dr. Haliru Bello, said the PDP was used to parties ganging-up against it. However, he said such gang-ups had always ended up making the PDP stronger.

Beyond the gang-up tune, how far can Buhari go as a lone ranger? Maybe not too far, as shown in the parliamentary election of Saturday. Before the election, many Nigerians had thought that Buhari, a former military head of state, would cause an upset in the Northern part of the country, especially the North-West. Since the formation of his party, he has developed a cult-like followership from this zone. Anywhere he visited during his campaign, the crowd was always tumultuous. This gave the ruling party sleepless nights, especially when Buhari advised his followers not to temper justice with mercy with anyone caught snatching ballot boxes on election days. The popularity of the CPC did not even make the PDP think that the ANPP, which is the parent party of Buhari’s, was a threat to the ruling party’s ambition. Buhari, it is generally believed, was the soul of the ANPP.

Despite the few inroads the party made in few states in the North like Katsina, Nasarawa and Bauchi, its performance will not be able to take Buhari to Aso Villa come Saturday. His party is not known in the South as it did not win a single seat in the region. In Ogun State, where his running mate, Pastor Tunde Bakare, hails from, the story is the same. Even in Lagos, where his church is located, Bakare was unable to deliver votes for his party. The question on the lips of many of his supporters, therefore, is whether the votes he will get from the North will be enough to make him president. Nigerians will decide on Saturday.

For Ribadu, who represents the yearning of millions of Nigerians calling for generational change, the refusal of his people in the North and even in his state of Adamawa to embrace his political party might work against him. Considered a young man with brilliant ideas, judging by the way he effectively used his position as the chairman of the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission to draw attention of world leaders to the country, many of his admirers are of the opinion that if given a higher responsibility, he could do better. But how will he get it, when, as the saying goes, as a prophet, he is without honour in his home? In the parliamentary election, Ribadu struggled to deliver only one federal constituency in Adamawa. He also lost in his constituency, though results from the state show that the ACN is gaining popularity there. Does that suggest that his time has not come?

Before the Saturday election, Shekarau was seen as man that would easily sway the votes of Kano to wherever he wants due to the level of his fame. A former teacher, it was with a shock that he defeated an incumbent governor when he contested in 2003. Ironically, the man he defeated, Dr. Musa Kwankwaso of the PDP is the man that wants to wrestle power back from the ANPP in the state. The problem militating against Shekarau’s presidential ambition is multifarious. His party was once a strong opposition party with nine governors in 1999, it came down to seven in 2003; five in 2007 and three now. Unfortunately as well, none of the other two governors seems to share in his presidential dream. If Shekarau does not beat a retreat or prioritise his need, he may not only lose the presidency, but his party may also lose his state to the opposition party.

So, who does the cap fit? In terms of spread of political party, contacts, finances for mobilisation of the electorate and also numerous jingles and advertorials in both print and the electronic media, no other political party can march the PDP. Does that translate to acceptability? Only Nigerians will decide. That, they will willingly do on Saturday.