How polls will shape the Green Chamber

Scores of members of the House of Representatives have lost their bid to fly their party’s ticket for re-election in Saturday’s national assembly polls. The few who won their tickets are said to have started scheming for leadership positions in the next House, but can they surmount the huddles ahead?

The about two kilometres drive into the National Assembly Complex is always a very busy road due to influx of people and vehicles. But new security measures introduced by the management have made visitors’ entry into the complex a herculean task. The hallowed chambers are always lively with gorgeously dressed MPs exchanging pleasantries before, during and after plenary sessions or committee meetings.

But in the last few weeks, the once populated complex has been deserted, with only few civil servants offering skeletal services. Penultimate week, the House of Representatives could not form a quorum in its last three sittings. The seats were deserted by their occupants who were already spellbound by election fever. But given the political situation across the country, any keen observer knows that the empty seats are indeed waiting for fresh occupants who will emerge after the April polls.

Already, majority of the MPs have lost out in the primary elections of their respective political parties. In the ruling Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) alone, over 70 percent of its MPs had lost their tickets in the January primaries which dashed their hope of returning to the  House. Even though MPs from other political parties also lost out, PDP legislators still remain biggest casualties of the 2011 primaries as only 30 percent of the 251 PDP lawmakers got their ticket.

Some of the big casualties include deputy speaker Usman Bayero Nafada who lost out in his bid to grab the Gombe State PDP gubernatorial ticket but he oviously failed to win the backing of Governor Danjuma Goje.

“My colleagues as we close today, I wish you the best in the elections for those of us who are contesting. Some of us contested the primaries and lost, others withdrew at the eleventh hour because of some irregularities. We should not be taking politics as a do or die affair,” the deputy speaker told his 11 colleagues present in the chamber shortly before he adjourned for the election.

Another casualty of the PDP primary is Deputy House Leader Baba Shehu Agaie (PDP, Niger) who lost out in his ambition to move up to the Senate. Three term MPs like Rep Halims Agoda (PDP, Delta), Garba Shehu Matazu (PDP, Katsina) are also not returning to the Green Chamber. Others are Patrick Obahiagbon (ACN, Edo), and West Idohosa (PDP, Edo).

Nevertheless, Rep Ita Enang and Tengu Tsegba (PDP, Benue) may move up to the senate. Rep Enang had defeated incumbent Senator Bob Effiong in the primaries of the PDP in Akwa Ibom State while Senator George Akume defecting to the ACN in Benue State to pave way for Tsegba to emerge as the PDP’s Senate candidate in Benue zone B.

The massive failure of MPs in the primaries especially those of the PDP also led to massive cross carpeting to other parties such as the ACN and CPC. As it is now, the PDP cannot boast of the overwhelming majority it had in 2007. The ANPP has also lost many members to the CPC, especially from the North-west, North-east and North-central.

The massive loss suffered by the ANPP led to the change in the leadership of the opposition when the then Minority Whip, Rep Femi Gbajabiamila (ACN Lagos) took over the position of Minority Leader position because his party is now the second largest party in the House with ANPP trailing in the 3rd position.

On the other hand, Speaker Dimeji Bankole is leading the winners club that is hoping to return to the House. The House Chief Whip, Emeka Ihedioha, Minority Leader Femi Gbajabiamila and Minority Whip Suleiman Abdulrahman Kawu (ANPP, Kano) have all got their tickets. Also on the list is Ahmed Aliyu Wadada. They have all made the INEC list and are gearing up for the April polls.

Former Minority Leader Mohammed Ali Ndume may be moving up to the Senate. Rep Ndume defected to the PDP and got the ticket for Borno South as a result of disagreement with Governor Ali Modu Sherrif. Similarly, former deputy minority whip, Bello Mutawalle (PDP, Zamfara) and Dino Melaye (ANPP, Kogi) had to cross to the PDP and ANPP respectively to make the list.

However, as friends and supporters of the existing legislators may continue to sympathise with them over this “irreparable loss”, analysts say that the MPs were the architects of their own failures and problems because “they failed to learn from history.” And pundits believe this is especially so with those of the PDP.

In 2009, Senate President David Mark was reported to have canvassed for automatic tickets in 2011 for the present crop of Senators and House members in the time of erstwhile PDP national chairman Prince Vincent Ogbulafor.

Since then, the MPs have made series of attempts to make sure that they actualize their dream. It would be recalled that they made concerted effort to amend the 2010 Electoral Act late last year to make national lawmakers automatic members of the National Executive Committees (NECs) of their respective political parties where critical decisions on party matters are taken.

But the PDP and the Presidency were said to have reached an accord with the MPs to drop the proposed legislation so that at least 2/3rd of them would be returned. The rest is now history, since majority of them have been swept away by their governors, even as Mr. President and the governors got their own part of the bargain. In the power game therefore, the lawmakers have emerged the big losers.

Like the politicians that they are, the few MPs who will make it to the general elections have started looking beyond the national assembly polls this week. Daily Trust learnt that the top brass among them have commenced scheming for leadership positions in the next Assembly, with at least three camps operating underground for now.

First there are those who are routing to maintain the status quo, which means returning Bankole as Speaker in June. That however depends on his ability to weather through the stormy political atmosphere in Ogun State and win the election. Then there is the Pro-zoning group who are banking on the zoning arrangement of the PDP to emerge as leaders of the house. Some sources in the PDP hierarchy have said that except there will be changes in the near future; the PDP has zoned the position of Speakership to the North Central geo-political zone. This is in anticipation that the PDP will have majority in the next parliament. Members from the zone have since started campaigning.

But there are others who believe that the ‘so-called’ zoning in the PDP is dead since Goodluck Jonathan has insisted on retaining the party’s presidential ticket which many believe should have been for the north following the death of President Umaru Yar’adua.

These set of lawmakers, most of whom are from the North are canvassing for the elimination of zoning in the composition of the leadership of the House. With their numerical strength, this argument cannot be swept under the carpet. In fact some MPs from the zone have already started jostling for the post of Speaker.

But fresh lawmakers will certainly form the largest power bloc in the House and may also pose a big challenge to ranking legislators who would insist on the need to maintain the status quo so that they will take the lead in the Green Chamber. The question is whether the new MPs can harness their numerical advantage and move against the status quo.

In the House now, there are dark clouds within and around the chamber, as nobody can tell how the next leadership will be formed, especially given that the ruling PDP is facing the greatest challenge to its dominance in Nigerian politics. By and large, it is the ranking legislators who may be the greatest beneficiaries of the new House in June since the House standing orders states that ‘cognate legislative experience’ is required to occupy any leadership position in the parliament.

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