Tough times for National Assembly members in Niger

MIKE ODIEGWU examines the chances of the National Assembly members from Niger State in the April 2, 2011 poll and writes that the election promises to be a tough one, considering emerging opposition from other contenders.

It will be a tough battle for incumbent National Assembly members in Niger State to win the April general elections and retain their seats.

Such intense struggle came against the background of emergence of strong opposition parties in the state consisting of the Action Congress of Nigeria, the Congress for Progressive Change and the All Nigeria Peoples Party.

Indeed, event followers from the state say that the unexpected rising popularity of opposition parties have changed the political calculations in the state and created nightmares for the three Peoples Democratic Party senators from the state.

For instance, the coast is not yet clear for Senator Zainab Kure, the wife of the former governor of the state, Mr. Abdulkadir Kure. There has been a drastic change in the political equation of the Zone A Senatorial District that launched her to the National Assembly in 2007.

Having dimmed the political light of the deputy Majority Leader of the House of Representatives, Mr. Shehu Agaie, Zainab has to contend with the rising influence of other opposition parties threatening her second term bid in the zone.

Agaie had nursed the ambition to move to the upper chamber, but he was denied ticket in the PDP primaries to pave way for Kure in order to douse the tension between the former governor and his predecessor, Dr. Babangida Aliyu.

Therefore, Agaie lost out at both ends. It has been difficult to convince supporters of Agaie to queue behind Kure. So, there may be protest votes against the senator. Besides, the zone that was hitherto pro-PDP has been polarised into three major political camps with the ACN rising in popularity.

The situation has been compounded by the perceived popularity of ACN’s senatorial candidate in the zone, Maj.-Gen. Garuba Mohammed. Again, the presence of ANPP and CPC candidates, Mr. Shehu Shuaibu and Mr. Aminu Baba, has further made things difficult for the senator. Others in the race but not seen as strong contenders are Mr. Abubakar Adamu (African Democratic Congress); Mr. Moses Jiya (Peoples Redemption Party) and Mr. Alfa Alhassan (Social Democratic Mega Party).

Interestingly too, Senator Awuse Kuta is having a tough time at the Zone B Senatorial District. Though he stands a better chance of returning to the Senate for a second term, his re-election bid is still faced with pockets of threats.

First, the zone is populated by Gbagy people and being the only Gbagy candidate that stood for the election in 2007, Kuta easily clinched the seat. However, of late, it was learnt that many Gbagy people had interpreted Kuta’s rapport with Aliyu as a betrayal and may capitalise on that to seek an alternative in the April 2 poll. To make things difficult for the senator, other political parties, especially ANPP and ACN have senatorial candidates who are themselves of Gbagy origin.

In ANPP, the incumbent lawmaker representing Chanchaga Federal Constituency in the House of Representatives, Mr. Mikaail Al-Amin, clinched the party’s senatorial ticket for the zone. His entrance into the senatorial race has also posed a threat to the second term bid of Kuta.

Similarly, Mr. Musa Mamud who is contesting the same position on the platform of ACN has further created hurdles for the incumbent senator. There is also Mr. Mohammed Zakari of the CPC whose entrance into the race is believed to have reduced the popularity of Kuta, especially considering the increased clamour for change. Though some people have dismissed the candidacy of Mr. Musa Hassan of the ADC as no big threat, his presence in the race may cause some political upset to the senator.

However, the toughest battle awaits Senator Nuhu Aliyu in Zone C Senatorial District. Aliyu has been in the Senate since 1999 and if he succeeds on April 2, he will have been one of the longest serving senators in the National Assembly.

There was serious opposition against his fourth term ambition during the PDP primaries. Many supporters of the party from the zone had felt that he had overstayed his welcome and should vacate the political space for younger people. But, like a cat with nine lives, the senator still emerged as the party’s candidate for the zone amid petitions from other contenders. His success at the primaries had opened a can of protest in PDP at the zone and the grievances created by the development are still lingering.

Indeed, shortly after the senatorial primaries of the party, his closest rival and female senatorial aspirant, Hajiya Aminat Ibrahim, had raised the alarm that the contest was manipulated to favour Aliyu.

Amina in a petition to the party leadership claimed that the process that threw up the senator again was marred by immense electoral fraud, lamenting that the senator employed instruments of coercion against many of the delegates who had prepared to cast their votes for her.

“We were massively cheated at the election. My delegates were denied the chance to vote, while many others were chased out of the place of voting by the police who were supposed to ensure orderliness during the election,” she said.

Despite Aliyu’s emergence, the agitation for change in the zone has continued and this may lead to protest votes against the senator. The senator had tried to douse the tension by adopting “2015 retirement year from active politics” as his campaign slogan. Besides, the zone is said to be a stronghold of the CPC.

The candidate of the CPC, Mr. Ibrahim Musa, has become a thorn in the flesh of the senator. The voting pattern in the zone that was hitherto pro-PDP, analysts say, may change in favour of the CPC. Aliyu is also soaked in tensed opposition waters as represented by Mr. Abbas Musa (ACN); Mr. Mohammed Abdullahi (ADC); Mr. Musa Usman (ANPP), and Mr. Saidu Alfa (SDMP).

For the House of Representatives, only two lawmakers are expected to return in April. Other representatives in the state either lost in the primaries or were edged out in their attempts to move up to the upper chambers. Some, however, succeeded to clinch the senatorial ticket. They are Mr. James Baitachi of Paiko, Bosso Federal Constituency and Mr. Mohammed Ahmed of Suleja, Tafa and Gurara Federal Constituency. They were elected on the PDP platform.

Just like their counterparts in the Senate, Baitachi and Ahmed have to fight their way to the National Assembly. Among Mr. Hassan Bello (ACN), Amina Musa (CPC) and Hussana Abdullahi (NTP) that are eyeing the seat of Paiko/Bosso; the strongest threat to Baitachi’s third term ambition is coming from the camp of ANPP. The party’s candidate is Mr. Ahmed Akpai.

Akpai is a member of the state House of Assembly and closer to the grass roots than Baitachi who is seen as an Abuja-based politician. The incumbent lawmaker is also battling with agitation for rotation wafting from Paiko. He is from Bosso Local Government Area and the seat, as it were, has been in the council since 1999 at the detriment of the people of Paiko. So, Akpai who is from Paiko is believed to be exploiting this sentiment and the corresponding home support is increasing by the day.

Similarly, it will be difficult for Ahmed to return to his position in April. He has to contend with the candidate of ACN, Mr. Abdullahi Suleiman, who had garnered immense home support as the former Chairman of Suleja Local Government Area based on his performance in the council. Also, the governorship candidate of ACN is from Suleja. Ahmed will also have to rise above the rising influence of Mr. Ibrahim Kako (ANPP) and Mr. Musa Abukar (CPC).

By all indications, it will be a Herculean task for incumbent lawmakers from the state to return to the National Assembly in April. They really have to go beyond staging political rallies to showcasing their achievements and giving practical reasons, while they merit another chance of representation.