Côte d’Ivoire: Threat Grows of Return to Open Civil War

28 February 2011

analysis

There is a real threat of return to open civil war in Côte d’Ivoire, driven primarily by the failure of former President Laurent Gbagbo to admit electoral defeat.

But despite a broad international consensus on the election results, the presence of UN peacekeeping forces, and active mediation efforts, there is no consensus on what measures would actually help rather than run the risk of accelerating the turn to violence.

This AfricaFocus Bulletin contains an open letter from scholars on the crisis in Côte d’Ivoire, an article by Human Rights Watch South Africa director criticizing the role of South African diplomacy in undermining international pressure, and a wide range of annotated links to other sources on the election, different views of the crisis, and background analyses.

I have provided this wide range of sources for further reference, although it may seem overwhelming, because of the importance of distinguishing issues on which there is genuine debate, and those where, in my opinion, a refusal to recognize facts would be foolish. Like most of my readers, I make no claim to be an expert on the affairs of Francophone Africa. But I have done my best to sort out the reliability of conflicting views, including those of several friends who have been in touch with different conclusions than those I reach.

In the category of “strongly confirmed,” after a review of these sources and more, I would cite three:

(1) As noted in another AfricaFocus Bulletin sent out today, and available on the web at http://www.africafocus.org/docs11/ci1102a.php, with reports from Human Rights Watch and the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights on violations of human rights, forces supporting former President Laurent Gbagbo are responsible for the overwhelming majority of human rights abuses in the current crisis.

(2) These abuses, as well as the preceding decade of strife, have been fueled in large part by the use of opportunistic appeals to xenophobic sentiment and denial of political rights on the basis of descent from immigrants from neighboring countries, embodied in the concept of Ivoirité. While Laurent Gbagbo did not originate the use of these appeals, he and his supporters have systematically made use of them, and continue to do so. For additional background see the book by Bronwen Manby, Struggles for Citizenship in Africa (http://www.africafocus.org/books/isbn.php?1848133529).

(3) Whatever the wisdom of elections as a means of resolving conflicts, there can be no reasonable doubt that the second round of elections was won decisively by Alassane Ouattara, who benefitted from most of the votes of supporters of the third candidate in the first round, Henri Konan Bédié. This remains true despite the fact that many voters were probably voting more against Gbagbo than for Ouattara, and all three candidates have dubious democratic and popular credentials. The questions raised by pro-Gbagbo forces do cast doubt on the wisdom of elections, but are not convincing in their accusations of sigificant distortion in the polling process itself and the count.

Among the issues for which clear answers are definitely not available:

(1) What the international community should do. Military intervention by ECOWAS would be rash. But South Africa’s apparent promotion of “power-sharing” on the Zimbabwe model, or an acceptance of a claimed election victory by Laurent Gbagbo, would also be disastrous.

(2) Proceeding to elections without effective plans for military forces which would accept the outcome was not wise. But those who argue that the flaw was only the failure to disarm the rebels fail to address the issue of the simultaneous continuation of political bias by the security forces of the Gbagbo regime. — Editor’s Note

For previous AfricaFocus Bulletins on Côte d’Ivoire, as well as links to other background sources, visit

http://www.africafocus.org/country/cotedivoire.php

For earlier background links, see particularly

http://www.africafocus.org/docs03ej/ci0301b.php

For current news, see

http://allafrica.com/cotedivoire/

Open Letter: Ivory Coast, the war against civilians

January 31, 2011

http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/01/31/open_letter_ivory_coast_the_war_against_civilians

Laurent Gbagbo is clinging to power after rejecting the results of the presidential elections, as declared by the Independent Electoral Commission, certified by the UN, and recognized by the international community, designating Alassane Ouattara as the clear winner.

There is now a real risk that the situation will escalate into civil war. In pro-opposition neighborhoods of Abidjan, numerous individuals have disappeared in the wake of operations by security forces loyal to Laurent Gbagbo. News reports have shown corpses lying in the streets, while morgues have refused to release the bodies of those killed to their families. Converging accounts have led the UN to suspect the existence of mass graves and the incineration of bodies, but Gbabgo’s security forces have prevented investigations of the alleged sites. Outside Abidjan, particularly in the western region, NGOs are reporting incidents of serious violence against the civilian population.

As scholars professionally committed to a rigorous analysis of the situation, we must insist that there is no evidence for any primal hatred between supposedly rival ethnic groups, nor for that matter between local populations and foreigners, between northerners and southerners, much less between Muslims and Christians. This is not to deny the existence of sharp, long-lasting tensions, particularly over access to land. However, the interplay of intersecting interests has generally allowed Ivoirians to implement negotiated solutions to such recurrent disputes. Moreover, Côte d’Ivoire, a country with a long history of mixing, remains a trans-ethnic, cosmopolitan, multi-religious “melting pot.” In any “civil” war, who would fight against whom? The answer is anything but obvious.

In the past few weeks, accumulated fears, resentment, and greed have fuelled violent clashes among different segments of the population in the west of the country. However, it is essential to stress the resilience of the overwhelming majority of Ivoirians on all sides of the political spectrum who are confronting the crisis without resorting to violence. On the national scale, Laurent Gbagbo’s supporters are just a vociferous and agitated minority who monopolize the state media they have hijacked. We should not overestimate their numbers.

Laurent Gbagbo has justified his actions in terms of the defense of national sovereignty, brandishing the specter of the country falling prey to foreign influences. This is a diversionary tactic. His political opponents are just as patriotic and just as concerned with developing the national economy in a more equal partnership with Western (or other) powers. Whatever its claims, the Gbagbo regime has hardly turned its back on the “predatory foreigners” it purports to ward off. Over the past ten years, it has depended on extensive politico-commercial networks in France and elsewhere. Not to mention the recourse to Liberian and other international mercenaries for controlling the Ivorian population.

To the extent that there is any real ideological difference between the two camps, it centers on their conception of citizenship. The Gbagbo regime promotes an ethno-nationalist vision: only members of indigenous ethnic groups from the south of Côte d’Ivoire may claim a fully legitimate, or ‘natural’, right to civic participation – a citizenship ‘by blood’. In this conception, electors from the northern regions, assimilated to ‘foreigners’, are relegated to the status of second-class citizens. Annulling the votes of districts in the north and the center of the country is thus consistent with this logic. The opposition claims a republican conception of citizenship, founded on the principal of equality and according civic rights to all those born in the Côte d’Ivoire, a far remove from the ‘divine right’ claimed by Gbagbo.

But ideology is undoubtedly not the key to understanding the ongoing crisis. The Gbagbo mafia is struggling first and foremost for power; for an exclusive hold on power, for the very enjoyment of power, with all its attendant material benefits. How, one might ask, can civilians freely and openly express dissent when the thugs of the outgoing regime exact merciless reprisals against anyone expressing overt opposition or who is even suspected of voting for the wrong candidate?

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