Kano 2011: Do the odds favour Kwankwaso?

three major candidates are gunning for Kano Government House. But barring some unforeseen political change in Kano politics, former governor of Kano State Engineer Rabi’u Musa Kwankwaso is on his way back to Kano Government House.

Already Kano’s political atmosphere is in a state of tension, intrigues and power games are at play in the ancient city. All the major parties are holding daylight and nocturnal meetings in order to map out strategies of winning election.

But before becoming a formidable force in Kano politics, Kwankwaso suffered a series of tribulation in the past.

CPC was initially seen as the party to beat. But the protracted crises that tore its supporters apart may cost the party the April election in the state. It is still uncertain, between Brigadier General Jaafaru Isa and Mohammed Abacha, who will fly the party’s flag in the election. While INEC says that Abacha should be the candidate, CPC secretariat insists that Jaafaru Isa is the party’s candidate. At campaign offices of the two aspirants, supporters are neither celebrating nor grieving.

In the ANPP, our correspondent observed imposition of candidates have caused mass exodus, which is the reason for the party’s dwindling fortunes. It was believed that the governor imposed both Alhaji Salisu Takai and his running mate, Alhaji Bashir Galadanci on the party. This decision and the fallout of the party’s primaries triggered mass exodus from the party. The party lost the state’s deputy governor, a serving senator, several influential politicians and legislators.

Many believed ANPP would have been the party to beat if, in its fold, there are formidable forces like Engineer Abdullahi Tijjani Gwarzo, Senator Muhammed Bello, Alhaji Sani Lawan Kofar Mata, Rep Ibrahim Mu’azzam Bichi, Rep Ahmed Audi Zarewa and hosts of others.

Another factor that may threaten the success of the party is the choice deputy governor. While there is no dispute in the PDP over the choice of Dr Abdullahi Umar Ganduje as running mate in the governorship race, the choice of ANPP’s Alhaji Bashir Galadanci has generated controversy in the house of the ANPP.

Our correspondent gathered that the choice of Galadanci was announced by Governor Shekarau to the Kano ANPP caucus in Abuja. “I was sent to tell you a message,” Shekarau was quoted as telling the caucus in Abuja about a month ago. But before he continued, the vice chairman of the party’s elders’ committee Alhaji Ammani Inuwa was said to have interjected and jokingly wondered who on earth could have made the governor an emissary.

“Takai sent to me announce to you that he has chosen Alhaji Bashir Galadanci as his running mate,” Governor Shekarau said after Alhaji Ammani Inuwa’s witty intervention.

The governor’s announcement stunned the gathering, who murmured their amazement. It was learnt that a notable member of the caucus then stood up and argued that the position should be given to one of the aspirants like Sheikh Ibrahim Khalil.

In response to the caucus member’s suggestion, it was reliably gathered that Governor Shekarau dropped the zinger that brought the meeting to an end. “I have known Sheikh Khalil for over 30 years. So let’s have a closing prayer,” Shekarau said succinctly – tactically calling for the end of the meeting that may likely cause sharp disagreement.

But ACN seems to be at its formative stage in the state, and despite the popularity of the party’s candidate, the party is still not popular in the state. A source said that the campaign would soon gather momentum when financial support from Lagos comes to the party in Kano. But the deputy governor is still determined in his campaign, awaiting a protest vote that may favour him.

Political observers believe that of all the above candidates, Kwankwaso’s campaign appears to be the crowd puller. It was said that each time the former Minister of Defence went on a campaign tour, the number of people that grace the rallies and those that line up on the median wall of the road, are greater than those of other candidates combined together.

The popularity of Kwankwaso was demonstrated last month when the national secretariat of Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) decided to conduct a re-run governorship primaries in Kano. The decision sparked mass protests in parts of the state. It was observed that the state nearly fell into a state of chaos during the trying time.

PDP headquarters at that time claimed that its decision was prompted by a series of petitions written against the former governor on the whitepaper gazetted against him by the state government.

But some people argued that when the party realised that whoever got the ticket apart from Kwankwaso would not deliver the state for the party, it reversed its decision.

Indeed, Kwankwaso’s homecoming rally revealed to his opponents his political strength. During the rally, which was attended by thousands of party supporters, movements were brought to a standstill in some strategic places in the state capital, a situation that made Kwankwaso to struggle to fight back tears.

But his popularity didn’t come as a surprise, or on the platter of gold. It will be recalled that he established his presence at the grassroots through the tour of 44 local governments in the three senatorial districts of the state early last year.

Another factor for Kwankwaso’s popularity was said to be the state-wide tour he conducted last year. When PDP embarked on the local government-by-local government rally, other political parties in the state seemed to be grappling with crises.

During the rally, which further consolidated Kwankwaso’s grip on the grassroots, the famous political movement called Kwankwasiyya was hatched, and the famous “Kwankwaso Dawo… Dawo… song” (Comeback… Comeback Kwankwaso) became popular in the state.

People argued that nothing further exposed Kwankwaso’s rising political profile than the recent homecoming rally organised by the party in the state. Observers said that the homecoming rally had sent the opposing camps to the drawing board in order to find ways to weaken his grip on the state’s politics.

As Kwankwaso’s popularity becomes no longer a subject of dispute, his opponents appear to be concentrating on how to pull him down rather than how to sell themselves to the electorate.

With the foregoing scenario, many analysts believe that, except the situation changes dramatically, Kwankwaso may have an easy ride back to the Africa House.

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