Who could have anticipated that the run-up to the ANC’s 53rd national conference would result in a war of words between Julius Malema and senior leaders of the ANC Youth League, that businessman Cyril Ramaphosa would be central to President Jacob Zuma’s re-election bid, that Kgalema Motlanthe could be facing an exit from active politics or that Cosatu’s voice would become superfluous? Mangaung is wreaking havoc in the Alliance, and the consequences could be far-reaching.
“We are now in a situation where the solution is more problematic than the crisis,” says a prominent voice in the tripartite alliance in reaction to the nomination of businessman Cyril Ramaphosa for the position of deputy president. This is because the last thing Cosatu and the South African Communist Party wanted in the wheeling and dealing around Mangaung was for one of the country’s richest businessmen to end up as the president-in-waiting.
But that, unfortunately for them, is how the cards have fallen now that President Jacob Zuma and Deputy President Kgalema Motlanthe will contest the ANC presidency. Cosatu and the SACP wanted the status quo in the ANC leadership to remain, in much the same way it did in their own congresses. They have therefore been prevailing on the ANC to avoid contestation over the presidency and have been trying to lean on Motlanthe to stop him from running for Zuma’s job.
Since Motlanthe has been rebuffing backroom deals and is loath to declare publicly whether he will stand for president or not, Zuma’s key lobbyists have tried to use Ramaphosa as a decoy to draw Motlanthe out. But Motlanthe has remained steadfast, frustrating campaigners on both sides, and in the confusion, the idea of Ramaphosa as number two on the Zuma ticket caught on. This week he was formally nominated by Zuma’s biggest support base, KwaZulu-Natal, and the ANC Women’s League (ANCWL) for the position of deputy president.
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South Africa: Unintended Consequences – The Mangaung Backlash