The offensive against Al-Shabaab and the complexities surrounding the quest for peace in Somalia is set to assume another dimension with the formal endorsement of the group by Al-Qaeda. According to the SITE Intelligence Group, a video message posted on jihadist forums shows Al-Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri breaking the news of the admission of the Somali group into the ranks of the global terror group.
The Al-Qaeda leader is quoted as having said: “I will break the good news to our Islamic nation, which will… annoy the crusaders, and it is that the Shabaab movement in Somalia has joined Al-Qaeda”.
Whereas the group’s affiliation with Al-Qaeda is not new, the significance lies of the announcement lies in the fact that Ayman’s message is the first endorsement of Al-Shabaab’s more than two year’s confession of links and loyalty to the Al-Qaeda. Despite encouraging statements for Al-Shabaab from Osama bin Ladin in the past and the continued professions of the group about their links with Al-Qaeda since 2009, Ayman’s message is the first most important formal endorsement of the group by Al-Qaeda. It represents a formal acknowledgement of the links between the two groups. The announcement can thus be seen as a welcoming of Al-Shabaab into the global Al-Qaeda franchise.
In relation to the overall quest for peace in Somalia, the announcement is significant. First, it stands to offer a huge boost to the moral of Al-Shabaab who appears to have been craving to be linked to Al-Qaeda.
This is particularly because as part of the Al-Qaeda franchise, their appeal to similar-minded groups across the world will not be determined only by the potency of their propaganda but the bigger appeal Al-Qaeda has garnered across the world. This has significant implications for the internationalisation of Al-Shabaab especially in its global recruitment, financing and perpetration of terror. Secondly, the appeal associated with the linkage and the possible resultant global recruitment drive is capable of finally making Somalia a melting point for global jihadists – something similar to Afghanistan. Whilst that stands to open another front for the global war on terror, within the local context of the Somali peace process, it stands to worsen the complexities surrounding the achievement of peace and the protraction of the Somali conflict.
On the other hand, the announcement is capable of breaking the Al-Shabaab. The conflict between the nationalist interests and Al-Qaeda interests in Al-Shabaab threatens to worsen. This will imply that those fighting with the motivation of a pan-Somali agenda and who appreciate the need for peace will see themselves being drawn into a very fluid global battle with an unpredictable end, and in which the ordinary people of Somalia may end up been the losers. Secondly, the announcement formally positions the Al-Shabaab firmly in the centre of the global war on terror and is capable of whipping up sympathies for the transitional federal institutions in their battles against Al-Shabaab. The global security radar will also be switched in the direction of the group with the major powers having a justification to pursue members of the group.
The announcement also cancels out any opportunities for dialogue between moderates within Al-Shabaab and stakeholders of the peace process in Somalia owing to the general stand of not talking to terrorists.
Whichever way the issues play out, going forward, it does seem to herald another chapter in the quest for peace in Somalia and the fight against terror across the world.
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